Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 46.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 54¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$60.8
49.4¢ → 53.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 49.4¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$63.14 | 57% 3229-2433 (5662) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $337.59 | $354.04 | +$16.45 | 48% 1430-1573 (3003) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47¢ | $182.02 | $181.92 | -$0.1 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47¢ | $155.57 | $172.12 | +$16.55 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 47.5¢ | $481.46 | $178.56 | -$3.55 | 52% 497-453 (950) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47 | $46.5 | -$0.5 | 67% 1664-818 (2482) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $11.18 | $12.92 | +$1.74 | 23% 36-121 (157) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.82 | $2.79 | -$0.03 | 49% 693-734 (1427) |
Invested
$1,219.24
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$63.14
Record
57%
3229-2433 (5662)
Invested
$337.59
Value
$354.04
PnL
+$16.45
Record
48%
1430-1573 (3003)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$481.46
Value
$178.56
PnL
-$3.55
Record
52%
497-453 (950)
Invested
$47
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
67%
1664-818 (2482)
Invested
$11.18
Value
$12.92
PnL
+$1.74
Record
23%
36-121 (157)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.79
PnL
-$0.03
Record
49%
693-734 (1427)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.