Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 44.5

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 51¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$15.64

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 50.5¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares7,384

Combined PnL+$113.62

Over6 traders

Total Value$756.75

Total Shares1,573

Combined PnL-$129.25

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 55¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$49.17	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$72.6	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$24.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$48.4
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 40¢	$391.93	$494.82	+$102.88	52% 2694-2510 (5204)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 60¢	$433.49	$340.51	-$92.98	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 54.5¢	$221.3	$218.76	-$2.54	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 53¢	$195.88	$170.01	-$25.87	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
AN Anon455	Underavg 39¢	$106.47	$147.42	+$40.95	49% 486-502 (988)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 60.9¢	$178.53	$145.04	-$33.5	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 46¢	$72.13	$83.04	+$10.91	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
LR lryyy<$100	Underavg 44¢	$48.18	$57.64	+$9.46	46% 998-1194 (2192)
alpheclabs2CTR	Overavg 42.2¢	$158.19	$46	+$20.81	45% 373-460 (833)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$26.46	$28.47	+$2.01	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 56¢	$28	$27	-$1	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$26.46	$26.73	+$0.27	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 46¢	$7.82	$9.18	+$1.36	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.7	$3.24	+$0.54	51% 572-546 (1118)
IM imjustkenisghey<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.31	$1.54	+$0.23	48% 68-75 (143)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$3,029.66

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$49.17

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,523.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$72.6

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Under$1,362.0655¢-$24.2

Over$1,161.648¢-$48.4

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$391.93

Value

$494.82

PnL

+$102.88

Record

52%

2694-2510 (5204)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$433.49

Value

$340.51

PnL

-$92.98

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$221.3

Value

$218.76

PnL

-$2.54

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$195.88

Value

$170.01

PnL

-$25.87

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Anon455

Under

Invested

$106.47

Value

$147.42

PnL

+$40.95

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$178.53

Value

$145.04

PnL

-$33.5

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$72.13

Value

$83.04

PnL

+$10.91

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

lryyy<$100

Under

Invested

$48.18

Value

$57.64

PnL

+$9.46

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

alpheclabs2CTR

Over

Invested

$158.19

Value

$46

PnL

+$20.81

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.46

Value

$28.47

PnL

+$2.01

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$28

Value

$27

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.46

Value

$26.73

PnL

+$0.27

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$7.82

Value

$9.18

PnL

+$1.36

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

imjustkenisghey<$100

Under

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

68-75 (143)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.