Chiefs vs. Falcons: O/U 40.5

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 61¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over61¢Under39¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$393.92

Smart Money Entry

70.9¢ → 60.5¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over61%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,284

Combined PnL+$106.35

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,896

Combined PnL+$287.57

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Overavg 71¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$77.3	49% 486-502 (988)
one8tyfiveCTR	Underavg 29¢	$965.9	$1.3K	+$333.5	58% 18-13 (31)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 29¢	$372.34	$333.82	-$38.52	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 71¢	$390.82	$264.14	+$18.32	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 71¢	$155.86	$164.64	+$8.78	48% 490-523 (1013)
SU suitcase6628	Overavg 75¢	$150	$150	+$0	66% 786-413 (1199)
0xheavy888	Overavg 71¢	$119.28	$126	+$6.72	56% 679-534 (1213)
TA takeormake	Overavg 72.7¢	$148.95	$125.05	-$23.9	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 57¢	$54.87	$72.19	+$17.33	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$52.23	$46.83	-$5.4	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 71¢	$31.95	$33.75	+$1.8	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$27	$25	-$2	50% 1156-1164 (2320)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$1,456.45

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$77.3

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

one8tyfiveCTR

Under

Invested

$965.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$333.5

Record

58%

18-13 (31)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$372.34

Value

$333.82

PnL

-$38.52

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$390.82

Value

$264.14

PnL

+$18.32

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$155.86

Value

$164.64

PnL

+$8.78

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

suitcase6628

Over

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

786-413 (1199)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$119.28

Value

$126

PnL

+$6.72

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$148.95

Value

$125.05

PnL

-$23.9

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$54.87

Value

$72.19

PnL

+$17.33

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.23

Value

$46.83

PnL

-$5.4

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$31.95

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$1.8

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27

Value

$25

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 61%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.