Spread: Falcons (-3.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Chiefs (78%) · Chiefs at 96¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 15

Falcons4¢Chiefs96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chiefs

Consensus Traders

Chiefs 78%

Total Value

$18.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 96¢

+21% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Falcons4%

Chiefs96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares16,039

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Falcons2 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares42,478

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Chiefs — 78%Falcons — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Chiefsavg 75¢	$7.5K	$8.9K	+$1.4K	60% 534-363 (897)
RN1	Chiefsavg 89¢	$3.9K	$4.1K	+$201.73	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Falconsavg 25¢	$9.3K	$4.1K	$-5.2K	12% 30-224 (254)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Chiefsavg 75¢	$616	$730.99	+$114.99	30% 497-1141 (1638)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Falconsavg 11¢	$571.03	$334.83	-$236.2	52% 2703-2512 (5215)
TO topdogbigboi	Chiefsavg 89¢	$316.47	$332.65	+$16.18	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
38 38791873984189	Chiefsavg 89¢	$268.65	$271.62	+$12.97	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
PA Pan9X<$100	Chiefsavg 89¢	$90.78	$95.42	+$4.64	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Chiefsavg 74¢	$37	$44.5	+$7.5	48% 495-537 (1032)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Chiefs

Invested

$7,489.65

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

60%

534-363 (897)

RN1

Chiefs

Invested

$3,945.89

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$201.73

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Falcons

Invested

$9,321.82

Value

$4.1K

PnL

$-5.2K

Record

12%

30-224 (254)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Chiefs

Invested

$616

Value

$730.99

PnL

+$114.99

Record

30%

497-1141 (1638)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Falcons

Invested

$571.03

Value

$334.83

PnL

-$236.2

Record

52%

2703-2512 (5215)

topdogbigboi

Chiefs

Invested

$316.47

Value

$332.65

PnL

+$16.18

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

38791873984189

Chiefs

Invested

$268.65

Value

$271.62

PnL

+$12.97

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Pan9X<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$90.78

Value

$95.42

PnL

+$4.64

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$37

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

Research grade

NeutralChiefs at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Chiefs

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Chiefs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrChiefs 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Chiefs 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chiefs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.