Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (60%) · Falcons at 52¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs49¢Falcons51¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 60%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$767.01

Smart Money Entry

56.2¢ → 51.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs49%

Falcons52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,687

Combined PnL-$712.84

Chiefs4 traders

Total Value$646.04

Total Shares1,332

Combined PnL-$54.17

Falcons — 60%Chiefs — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Falconsavg 56.9¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$412.59	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
SU SunlineTicker	Falconsavg 58¢	$490.1	$354.9	-$135.2	69% 1738-777 (2515)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chiefsavg 56¢	$381.37	$330.28	-$51.09	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 50.4¢	$333.38	$268.05	-$65.33	49% 486-502 (988)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Chiefsavg 42¢	$152.68	$176.31	+$23.63	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 58¢	$163.56	$136.77	-$26.79	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
VeryLucky888	Falconsavg 58¢	$178.71	$129.41	-$49.3	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Falconsavg 59¢	$148.94	$106.02	-$42.91	48% 490-523 (1013)
NO NotJump<$100	Falconsavg 48¢	$48	$40.5	-$7.5	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.68	+$0.08	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

38791873984189

Falcons

Invested

$1,433.02

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$412.59

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

SunlineTicker

Falcons

Invested

$490.1

Value

$354.9

PnL

-$135.2

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$381.37

Value

$330.28

PnL

-$51.09

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$333.38

Value

$268.05

PnL

-$65.33

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

MadridTimeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$152.68

Value

$176.31

PnL

+$23.63

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$163.56

Value

$136.77

PnL

-$26.79

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

VeryLucky888

Falcons

Invested

$178.71

Value

$129.41

PnL

-$49.3

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Falcons

Invested

$148.94

Value

$106.02

PnL

-$42.91

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

NotJump<$100

Falcons

Invested

$48

Value

$40.5

PnL

-$7.5

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Falcons 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.