Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (22%) · Falcons at 55¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 15

Chiefs46¢Falcons54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 22%

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$98.87

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 54.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs46%

Falcons55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons2 traders

Total Value$8.7K

Total Shares16,042

Combined PnL-$84.39

Chiefs7 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares18,074

Combined PnL-$14.48

Falcons — 22%Chiefs — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFalcons 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961	Falconsavg 55¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$100	44% 12-15 (27)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Falconsavg 53.7¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$15.61	53% 536-466 (1002)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chiefsavg 45.5¢	$3.1K	$2.7K	+$15.38	53% 1186-1032 (2218)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chiefsavg 45¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$27.78	57% 3570-2717 (6287)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Chiefsavg 47¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$60.89	62% 1024-638 (1662)
GC GC-PCTR	Chiefsavg 45.4¢	$397.25	$398.13	+$0.88	36% 319-557 (876)
38 38791873984189CTR	Chiefsavg 45.7¢	$577.52	$391.14	+$4.96	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
NM NM-PCTR	Chiefsavg 45.9¢	$316.19	$313.64	-$2.55	59% 3728-2540 (6268)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 46.2¢	$21.48	$21.44	-$0.04	49% 1349-1396 (2745)

0x418D51e13d019913BB027DB22ECc723fe1AD88A3-1720918577961

Falcons

Invested

$5,500

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$100

Record

44%

12-15 (27)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Falcons

Invested

$3,246.82

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$15.61

Record

53%

536-466 (1002)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$3,146

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$15.38

Record

53%

1186-1032 (2218)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$2,500.42

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27.78

Record

57%

3570-2717 (6287)

darkumbreon88CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$1,907.98

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$60.89

Record

62%

1024-638 (1662)

GC-PCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$397.25

Value

$398.13

PnL

+$0.88

Record

36%

319-557 (876)

38791873984189CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$577.52

Value

$391.14

PnL

+$4.96

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

NM-PCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$316.19

Value

$313.64

PnL

-$2.55

Record

59%

3728-2540 (6268)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$21.48

Value

$21.44

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFalcons 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.