Spread: Chiefs (-13.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (45%) · Falcons at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Chiefs24¢Falcons76¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$238.28

Smart Money Entry

75.1¢ → 76.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chiefs24%

Falcons77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,701

Combined PnL-$206.2

Chiefs6 traders

Total Value$819.92

Total Shares3,304

Combined PnL-$32.08

Falcons — 45%Chiefs — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChiefs 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Falconsavg 79¢	$985.81	$842.73	-$143.09	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
AN Anon455	Falconsavg 72.1¢	$663.57	$620.92	-$42.65	49% 486-502 (988)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Chiefsavg 21¢	$226.89	$243.1	+$16.21	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chiefsavg 33¢	$226.62	$223.18	-$3.43	51% 572-546 (1118)
PR primm	Falconsavg 63¢	$168.84	$207.7	+$38.86	59% 1183-828 (2011)
BO BoomLaLa	Falconsavg 79¢	$197.5	$145	-$52.5	39% 234-370 (604)
LI LimousinCTR	Chiefsavg 21¢	$128.27	$137.43	+$9.16	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
TA takeormakeCTR	Chiefsavg 35¢	$157.85	$101.48	-$56.37	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Chiefsavg 37¢	$99.02	$92.75	-$6.27	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Chiefs leg	Chiefsavg 37¢	$78.79	$69.2	-$9.58
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 58¢	$20.23	$23.54	+$3.31
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Chiefsavg 21¢	$83.01	$88.94	+$5.93	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
RN1CTR<$100	Chiefsavg 37¢	$29.37	$25.79	-$3.57	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
PA Pan9X<$100	Falconsavg 79¢	$43.32	$13.98	-$6.82	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

38791873984189

Falcons

Invested

$985.81

Value

$842.73

PnL

-$143.09

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Anon455

Falcons

Invested

$663.57

Value

$620.92

PnL

-$42.65

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

LightParadoxCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$226.89

Value

$243.1

PnL

+$16.21

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chiefs

Invested

$226.62

Value

$223.18

PnL

-$3.43

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

primm

Falcons

Invested

$168.84

Value

$207.7

PnL

+$38.86

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

BoomLaLa

Falcons

Invested

$197.5

Value

$145

PnL

-$52.5

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

LimousinCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$128.27

Value

$137.43

PnL

+$9.16

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

takeormakeCTR

Chiefs

Invested

$157.85

Value

$101.48

PnL

-$56.37

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$99.02

Value

$92.75

PnL

-$6.27

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Chiefs$78.7937¢-$9.58

Falcons$20.2358¢+$3.31

VenusianCTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$83.01

Value

$88.94

PnL

+$5.93

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

RN1CTR<$100

Chiefs

Invested

$29.37

Value

$25.79

PnL

-$3.57

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Pan9X<$100

Falcons

Invested

$43.32

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$6.82

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrChiefs 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedChiefs 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chiefs 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.