Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 48.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 44¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$99.21

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 43.5¢

-10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,876

Combined PnL-$76.3

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,341

Combined PnL-$22.91

Over — 63%Under — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$132.28	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$165.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$759.97	$726.9	-$33.07
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$127.95	52% 2694-2510 (5204)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 52¢	$612.22	$629.88	+$17.66	51% 572-546 (1118)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 60¢	$536.04	$491.42	-$44.62	69% 1738-777 (2515)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 40¢	$327.2	$368.1	+$40.9	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 52¢	$140.4	$144.45	+$4.05	77% 277-81 (358)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$54.63	$56.88	+$2.25	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$30.63	$34.38	+$3.75
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$24	$22.5	-$1.5
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$50.39	$56.69	+$6.3	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$31.6	$35.55	+$3.95	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$4	$4.5	+$0.5	36% 204-361 (565)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,110.35

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$132.28

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Both legs:

Under$1,350.3849¢+$165.35

Over$759.9747¢-$33.07

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Over

Invested

$1,450.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$127.95

Record

52%

2694-2510 (5204)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$612.22

Value

$629.88

PnL

+$17.66

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$536.04

Value

$491.42

PnL

-$44.62

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$327.2

Value

$368.1

PnL

+$40.9

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$140.4

Value

$144.45

PnL

+$4.05

Record

77%

277-81 (358)

NotJumpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$54.63

Value

$56.88

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.39

Value

$56.69

PnL

+$6.3

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$31.6

Value

$35.55

PnL

+$3.95

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

36%

204-361 (565)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+43 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.