Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 44.5

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 15

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$14.9K

Combined PnL

$773.55

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 47.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares31,077

Combined PnL+$776.49

Over2 traders

Total Value$124.2

Total Shares233

Combined PnL-$2.94

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 45¢	$5.1K	$5.3K	+$280.61	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 45¢	$4.3K	$4.5K	+$236.59	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 45¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$118.38	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$63.87	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 45¢	$693.9	$732.45	+$38.55	44% 337-422 (759)
OD OddstormCTR	Underavg 45¢	$290.25	$306.38	+$16.13	35% 138-251 (389)
IC ic4creamCTR	Underavg 45¢	$264.6	$279.3	+$14.7	9% 48-480 (528)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$66.78	$70.49	+$3.71	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 54¢	$65.54	$63.72	-$1.82	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$59.55	$62.86	+$3.31	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 55¢	$61.6	$60.48	-$1.12	56% 665-530 (1195)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$20.01	$20.66	+$0.65	43% 244-324 (568)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$5,050.94

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$280.61

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,258.63

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$236.59

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$2,130.89

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$118.38

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$1,149.61

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$63.87

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$693.9

Value

$732.45

PnL

+$38.55

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

OddstormCTR

Under

Invested

$290.25

Value

$306.38

PnL

+$16.13

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

ic4creamCTR

Under

Invested

$264.6

Value

$279.3

PnL

+$14.7

Record

48-480 (528)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$66.78

Value

$70.49

PnL

+$3.71

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$65.54

Value

$63.72

PnL

-$1.82

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$59.55

Value

$62.86

PnL

+$3.31

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$61.6

Value

$60.48

PnL

-$1.12

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20.01

Value

$20.66

PnL

+$0.65

Record

43%

244-324 (568)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 48%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 90% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Under 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.