Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Jaguars, while the market favors Titans (54%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (43%) · Jaguars at 47¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Jaguars
7
Jaguars 43%
$9.0K
$1.1K
54¢ → 46.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralJaguars at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Titans 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Titansavg 46¢ | $3.6K | $5.1K | +$1.5K | 57% 3682-2769 (6451) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Jaguarsavg 54¢ | $4.2K | $3.8K | -$347.24 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
BR BreakTheBank<$100 | Titansavg 42¢ | $45.46 | $40.05 | -$5.41 | 42% 621-853 (1474) |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Jaguarsavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $31.5 | +$5 | 50% 1156-1164 (2320) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100 | Titansavg 43.4¢ | $29.82 | $25.45 | -$4.38 | 51% 572-546 (1118) |
IC ic4creamCTR<$100 | Jaguarsavg 57¢ | $19.95 | $22.05 | +$2.1 | 9% 48-480 (528) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Titansavg 44¢ | $3.96 | $3.33 | -$0.63 | 36% 140-253 (393) |
Invested
$3,584.79
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
57%
3682-2769 (6451)
Invested
$4,166.86
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$347.24
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$45.46
Value
$40.05
PnL
-$5.41
Record
42%
621-853 (1474)
Invested
$26.5
Value
$31.5
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
1156-1164 (2320)
Invested
$29.82
Value
$25.45
PnL
-$4.38
Record
51%
572-546 (1118)
Invested
$19.95
Value
$22.05
PnL
+$2.1
Record
9%
48-480 (528)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$0.63
Record
36%
140-253 (393)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.