Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Titans, while the market favors Jaguars (57%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Jaguars (-7.5)

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (42%) · Titans at 43¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars57¢Titans43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$250.87

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 43¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars57%

Titans43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,197

Combined PnL+$192.32

Jaguars7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,194

Combined PnL+$58.55

Titans — 42%Jaguars — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Jaguarsavg 56.5¢	$2.8K	$2.6K	-$244.68	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 56.5¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$161.22
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 53¢	$986.78	$903.32	-$83.46
CM cm2897CTR	Titansavg 43.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$147.15	49% 1251-1295 (2546)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Titansavg 47¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$41.33	49% 2881-2944 (5825)
BI biying88888	Jaguarsavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$114.34	44% 247-320 (567)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Jaguarsavg 57.2¢	$494.28	$456.17	-$38.11	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
└ Jaguars leg	Jaguarsavg 57.2¢	$277.95	$250.45	-$27.5
└ Titans leg	Titansavg 51¢	$216.33	$205.72	-$10.6
38 38791873984189	Jaguarsavg 56.6¢	$470.01	$427.33	-$42.68	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
TO topdogbigboi	Jaguarsavg 56¢	$112	$103	-$9	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
PA Pan9X<$100	Jaguarsavg 56.6¢	$84.8	$73.35	-$8.09	50% 2214-2221 (4435)
SI Siddhartha1CTR<$100	Titansavg 41¢	$67.44	$70.73	+$3.29	58% 113-81 (194)
NO NotJump<$100	Jaguarsavg 56¢	$56	$51.5	-$4.5	50% 1182-1198 (2380)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Titansavg 49.7¢	$37.25	$36.38	-$0.88	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
VE Venusian<$100	Jaguarsavg 43¢	$26.47	$31.7	+$5.23	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Titansavg 46¢	$26.46	$27.9	+$1.44	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
LI Limousin<$100	Jaguarsavg 45¢	$11.25	$14.5	+$3.25	38% 1379-2246 (3625)

RN1ARB<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$2,802.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$244.68

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Both legs:

Jaguars$1,815.5756.5¢-$161.22

Titans$986.7853¢-$83.46

cm2897CTR

Titans

Invested

$1,378.08

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$147.15

Record

49%

1251-1295 (2546)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Titans

Invested

$1,294.85

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$41.33

Record

49%

2881-2944 (5825)

biying88888

Jaguars

Invested

$1,078.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$114.34

Record

44%

247-320 (567)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$494.28

Value

$456.17

PnL

-$38.11

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Both legs:

Jaguars$277.9557.2¢-$27.5

Titans$216.3351¢-$10.6

38791873984189

Jaguars

Invested

$470.01

Value

$427.33

PnL

-$42.68

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

topdogbigboi

Jaguars

Invested

$112

Value

$103

PnL

-$9

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

Pan9X<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$84.8

Value

$73.35

PnL

-$8.09

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

Siddhartha1CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$67.44

Value

$70.73

PnL

+$3.29

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

NotJump<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$56

Value

$51.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$37.25

Value

$36.38

PnL

-$0.88

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Venusian<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$26.47

Value

$31.7

PnL

+$5.23

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$26.46

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$1.44

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

Limousin<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$11.25

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$3.25

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Jaguars 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.