Spread: Jaguars (-4.5)

3 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (25%) · Jaguars at 74¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars74¢Titans26¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 25%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

-$140.94

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 73.5¢

+14% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars74%

Titans27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars3 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares19,615

Combined PnL+$966.45

Titans9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares18,950

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Jaguars — 25%Titans — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTitans 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Titans 75% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Jaguarsavg 63¢	$10.5K	$11.8K	+$1.3K	52% 2703-2512 (5215)
TA takeormakeCTR	Titansavg 37¢	$5.2K	$4.2K	$-1.1K	57% 3683-2777 (6460)
FO Forecastication2	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$194.1	44% 341-427 (768)
GA Gaditima	Jaguarsavg 72¢	$720	$630	-$90	49% 407-417 (824)
AN Anon455CTR	Titansavg 37¢	$619.38	$493.83	-$125.55	49% 497-511 (1008)
38 38791873984189CTR	Titansavg 28¢	$287.23	$297.29	+$15.05	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Titansavg 27¢	$200.82	$275.2	+$74.38	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
RN1CTR	Titansavg 37¢	$330.04	$263.14	-$66.9	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Titansavg 27¢	$58.62	$80.33	+$21.71	35% 142-261 (403)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Titansavg 27¢	$50.54	$69.26	+$18.72	18% 63-282 (345)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Titansavg 27¢	$35.91	$49.21	+$13.3	50% 751-741 (1492)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Titansavg 37¢	$7.03	$5.6	-$1.42	50% 2214-2221 (4435)

CUTJALENHURTS

Jaguars

Invested

$10,504.62

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

2703-2512 (5215)

takeormakeCTR

Titans

Invested

$5,212.93

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

57%

3683-2777 (6460)

Forecastication2

Jaguars

Invested

$1,416.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$194.1

Record

44%

341-427 (768)

Gaditima

Jaguars

Invested

$720

Value

$630

PnL

-$90

Record

49%

407-417 (824)

Anon455CTR

Titans

Invested

$619.38

Value

$493.83

PnL

-$125.55

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

38791873984189CTR

Titans

Invested

$287.23

Value

$297.29

PnL

+$15.05

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

MadridTimeCTR

Titans

Invested

$200.82

Value

$275.2

PnL

+$74.38

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

RN1CTR

Titans

Invested

$330.04

Value

$263.14

PnL

-$66.9

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

OddstormCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$58.62

Value

$80.33

PnL

+$21.71

Record

35%

142-261 (403)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$50.54

Value

$69.26

PnL

+$18.72

Record

18%

63-282 (345)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$35.91

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$13.3

Record

50%

751-741 (1492)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$7.03

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

2214-2221 (4435)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

3 of 12 top traders (25%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTitans 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrTitans 67% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedTitans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Titans 75% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.