Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (56%) · Jaguars at 79¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Jaguars79¢Titans21¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 56%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$343.48

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 79¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars79%

Titans21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,753

Combined PnL-$0

Titans4 traders

Total Value$401.15

Total Shares2,865

Combined PnL-$343.48

Jaguars — 56%Titans — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJaguars 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$0	50% 760-746 (1506)
FO Forecastication2	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$427.78	$427.78	+$0	44% 349-436 (785)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Titansavg 27¢	$689.53	$357.53	-$332	47% 507-561 (1068)
BA Bayupati	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$243.73	$243.73	-$0	20% 41-166 (207)
OD Oddstorm	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$224.29	$224.29	+$0	35% 143-263 (406)
PU purplegatto	Jaguarsavg 73¢	$178.12	$178.12	+$0	68% 2683-1267 (3950)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Titansavg 14¢	$28	$28	-$0	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Titansavg 26.4¢	$18.91	$10.02	-$8.89	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Titansavg 20.5¢	$8.2	$5.6	-$2.6	50% 2215-2229 (4444)

nigiri99

Jaguars

Invested

$1,665.86

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

Forecastication2

Jaguars

Invested

$427.78

Value

$427.78

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Titans

Invested

$689.53

Value

$357.53

PnL

-$332

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

Bayupati

Jaguars

Invested

$243.73

Value

$243.73

PnL

-$0

Record

20%

41-166 (207)

Oddstorm

Jaguars

Invested

$224.29

Value

$224.29

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

purplegatto

Jaguars

Invested

$178.12

Value

$178.12

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

2683-1267 (3950)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$28

Value

$28

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$18.91

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$8.89

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Titans

Invested

$8.2

Value

$5.6

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJaguars 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Jaguars 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.