Spread: Jaguars (-17.5)

2 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Titans (17%) · Titans at 71¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15

Jaguars30¢Titans70¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Titans

Consensus Traders

Titans 17%

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

$87.67

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 70.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars30%

Titans71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Titans2 traders

Total Value$13.5K

Total Shares19,019

Combined PnL+$5.05

Jaguars10 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares17,247

Combined PnL+$82.62

Titans — 17%Jaguars — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJaguars 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Jaguars 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Titansavg 71¢	$13.0K	$13.0K	+$5.05	48% 469-508 (977)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$79.63	18% 63-281 (344)
0xheavy888	Titansavg 71¢	$477.12	$477.12	+$0	56% 663-529 (1192)
OD OddstormCTR	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$153.1	$153.1	+$0	35% 138-251 (389)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$95.19	$96.83	+$1.64	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$37.99	$38.64	+$0.65	44% 337-422 (759)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$27.21	$27.68	+$0.47	68% 2675-1265 (3940)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$20.48	$20.48	+$0	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$20.38	$20.38	+$0	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$13.05	$13.27	+$0.22	50% 2174-2194 (4368)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$8.27	$8.27	+$0	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Jaguarsavg 29¢	$7.67	$7.67	+$0	38% 1314-2163 (3477)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Titans

Invested

$13,021.25

Value

$13.0K

PnL

+$5.05

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Jaguars

Invested

$4,618.3

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$79.63

Record

18%

63-281 (344)

0xheavy888

Titans

Invested

$477.12

Value

$477.12

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

OddstormCTR

Jaguars

Invested

$153.1

Value

$153.1

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$95.19

Value

$96.83

PnL

+$1.64

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$37.99

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$0.65

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$27.21

Value

$27.68

PnL

+$0.47

Record

68%

2675-1265 (3940)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$20.48

Value

$20.48

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$20.38

Value

$20.38

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$13.05

Value

$13.27

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

2174-2194 (4368)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$8.27

Value

$8.27

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

LimousinCTR<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$7.67

Value

$7.67

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

Research grade

NeutralTitans at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Titans

2 of 12 top traders (17%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Titans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrJaguars 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Jaguars 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Titans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.