Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 52.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 100¢ · $189 held
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 100%
$189.47
-$130.23
50.7¢ → 100¢
+97% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 42.7¢ | $156.67 | $159.5 | +$2.83 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $29.35 | $29.97 | +$0.61 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $49.68 | — | -$49.68 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
SE seeeeeeb<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $62.72 | — | -$62.72 | 52% 804-728 (1532) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $19.32 | — | -$19.32 | 50% 7127-7172 (14299) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $1.96 | — | -$1.96 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
Invested
$156.67
Value
$159.5
PnL
+$2.83
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
RN1<$100Invested
$29.35
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.61
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$49.68
Value
—
PnL
-$49.68
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$62.72
Value
—
PnL
-$62.72
Record
52%
804-728 (1532)
Invested
$19.32
Value
—
PnL
-$19.32
Record
50%
7127-7172 (14299)
Invested
$1.96
Value
—
PnL
-$1.96
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.