Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5

7 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (35%) · Under at 54¢ · $100K held · ends Nov 1

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 35%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$100.4K

Combined PnL

-$123.03

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 20 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$38.2K

Total Shares72,356

Combined PnL-$144.2

Over13 traders

Total Value$31.4K

Total Shares67,116

Combined PnL+$21.17

Under — 35%Over — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$31.0K	$30.7K	-$300	53% 915-808 (1723)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$21.6K	$21.4K	-$200
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$9.4K	$9.3K	-$100
KC Kch-Temp	Underavg 53¢	$23.0K	$22.8K	-$217.43	51% 220-214 (434)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.5¢	$12.2K	$12.2K	-$7.1	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 53¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$74.39	53% 615-541 (1156)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$19.15	58% 42700-31074 (73774)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492	Underavg 52¢	$3.7K	$3.7K	+$35.51	49% 783-802 (1585)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 46¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$35.2	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
FO forget4	Underavg 54¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$30	44% 693-893 (1586)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 47¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$31.12	72% 6831-2625 (9456)
0X 0x0A77exmmCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$49.39	54% 2337-2025 (4362)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$21.06	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 46¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$10.87	54% 732-617 (1349)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 47¢	$470	$475	+$5	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$397.15	$401.38	+$4.23	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 47¢	$372.42	$368.46	-$3.96	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 47¢	$318.19	$314.81	-$3.38	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
MA manoamano	Underavg 54¢	$296.09	$287.87	-$8.22	51% 506-478 (984)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Underavg 53¢	$172.78	$174.41	+$1.63	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$130.16	$129.8	-$0.36	57% 29237-21622 (50859)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.8¢	$101.54	$100.91	-$0.63
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$28.62	$28.89	+$0.27
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$62.69	$63.37	+$0.68	55% 3010-2439 (5449)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.11	$16.93	-$0.18	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 53¢	$7.95	$7.87	-$0.07	50% 7975-8010 (15985)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANARB<$100

Under

Invested

$31,000

Value

$30.7K

PnL

-$300

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

Both legs:

Invested

$23,047.82

Value

$22.8K

PnL

-$217.43

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$12,231.56

Value

$12.2K

PnL

-$7.1

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$7,885.18

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$74.39

Record

53%

615-541 (1156)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$4,727.48

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$19.15

Record

58%

42700-31074 (73774)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492

Under

Invested

$3,693.14

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$35.51

Record

49%

783-802 (1585)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$3,238

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$35.2

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

forget4

Under

Invested

$3,240

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$30

Record

44%

693-893 (1586)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$3,158.74

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$31.12

Record

72%

6831-2625 (9456)

0x0A77exmmCTR

Over

Invested

$2,752.29

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$49.39

Record

54%

2337-2025 (4362)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$2,680.04

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$21.06

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.87

Record

54%

732-617 (1349)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$470

Value

$475

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$397.15

Value

$401.38

PnL

+$4.23

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$372.42

Value

$368.46

PnL

-$3.96

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$318.19

Value

$314.81

PnL

-$3.38

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

manoamano

Under

Invested

$296.09

Value

$287.87

PnL

-$8.22

Record

51%

506-478 (984)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under

Invested

$172.78

Value

$174.41

PnL

+$1.63

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$130.16

Value

$129.8

PnL

-$0.36

Record

57%

29237-21622 (50859)

Both legs:

Over$101.5446.8¢-$0.63

Under$28.6253¢+$0.27

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$62.69

Value

$63.37

PnL

+$0.68

Record

55%

3010-2439 (5449)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.11

Value

$16.93

PnL

-$0.18

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.87

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

7975-8010 (15985)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 20 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.