Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 44.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 33%
$2.9K
-$54.11
44.9¢ → 46.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$48.19 | 49% 783-802 (1585) |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 54.6¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$3.36 | 55% 7318-5882 (13200) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $144.76 | $143.12 | -$1.64 | 59% 46920-33177 (80097) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $40.15 | $39.06 | -$1.09 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $16.6 | $16.76 | +$0.16 | 54% 4943-4171 (9114) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $3.04 | $3.07 | +$0.03 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTRInvested
$1,445.85
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$48.19
Record
49%
783-802 (1585)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,351.69
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$3.36
Record
55%
7318-5882 (13200)
Invested
$144.76
Value
$143.12
PnL
-$1.64
Record
59%
46920-33177 (80097)
Invested
$40.15
Value
$39.06
PnL
-$1.09
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$16.76
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
4943-4171 (9114)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$3.07
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.