Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 38.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$-1.2K
48.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$304.08 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 43¢ | $565.86 | $1.1K | +$526.35 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49¢ | $1.3K | $441.8 | -$830.42 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $26.73 | $59.37 | +$32.64 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $24.08 | — | -$24.08 | 50% 3948-3932 (7880) |
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 46% 367-427 (794) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,838.08
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$304.08
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.73
Value
$59.37
PnL
+$32.64
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$24.08
Value
—
PnL
-$24.08
Record
50%
3948-3932 (7880)
Invested
$1,250
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
46%
367-427 (794)
Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
-$3.06
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.