Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Jaguars (40%) · Jaguars at 87¢ · $648 held · ended Nov 1

Jaguars87¢Colts13¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jaguars

Consensus Traders

Jaguars 40%

Total Value

$647.85

Combined PnL

-$57.23

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 87¢

+24% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Jaguars87%

Colts13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jaguars2 traders

Total Value$489.9

Total Shares690

Combined PnL+$4.13

Colts3 traders

Total Value$157.95

Total Shares744

Combined PnL-$61.36

Jaguars — 40%Colts — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Jaguarsavg 70.7¢	$406.42	$408.25	-$1.04	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Jaguarsavg 66¢	$75.9	$81.65	+$5.18	53% 11583-10087 (21670)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Coltsavg 29¢	$134.38	$76.46	-$57.92	54% 4944-4172 (9116)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Coltsavg 31¢	$62.93	$58.87	-$3.04	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Coltsavg 30¢	$23.4	$22.62	-$0.39	57% 29247-21632 (50879)

UpTheBlues

Jaguars

Invested

$406.42

Value

$408.25

PnL

-$1.04

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

BoomLaLa<$100

Jaguars

Invested

$75.9

Value

$81.65

PnL

+$5.18

Record

53%

11583-10087 (21670)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Colts

Invested

$134.38

Value

$76.46

PnL

-$57.92

Record

54%

4944-4172 (9116)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$62.93

Value

$58.87

PnL

-$3.04

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$23.4

Value

$22.62

PnL

-$0.39

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Research grade

NeutralJaguars at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Jaguars

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Jaguars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJaguars 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Colts 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.