Spread: Jaguars (-20.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (67%) · Colts at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
6
Colts 67%
$5.0K
-$29.5
80.1¢ → 79.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Coltsavg 79.8¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$10.92 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Coltsavg 80.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$24.66 | 54% 17124-14337 (31461) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Coltsavg 80¢ | $800 | $790 | -$10 | 53% 5581-4949 (10530) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Jaguarsavg 19¢ | $84.56 | $93.46 | +$8.9 | 53% 11542-10038 (21580) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Jaguarsavg 18.9¢ | $89.86 | $47.24 | +$7.38 | 46% 8071-9516 (17587) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Coltsavg 80¢ | $31.2 | $31.01 | -$0.19 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$3,043.85
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$10.92
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$1,033.18
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$24.66
Record
54%
17124-14337 (31461)
Invested
$800
Value
$790
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
5581-4949 (10530)
Invested
$84.56
Value
$93.46
PnL
+$8.9
Record
53%
11542-10038 (21580)
Invested
$89.86
Value
$47.24
PnL
+$7.38
Record
46%
8071-9516 (17587)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$31.01
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.