Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (93%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Texans vs. Chargers: O/U 40.5

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (23%) · Under at 7.5¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8

Over93¢Under7¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 23%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 7.5¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over93%

Under8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares9,185

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Over10 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,908

Combined PnL+$718.78

Under — 23%Over — 77%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI big8betzCTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$4.6K	$1.7K	$-3.0K	50% 58-57 (115)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 49¢	$842.25	$1.0K	+$197.67	64% 2154-1189 (3343)
0xheavy888	Overavg 49¢	$551.25	$939.38	+$388.13	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49.3¢	$306.92	$575.45	+$1.07	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 49¢	$541.94	$547.47	+$5.53	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
NM NM-P	Overavg 49¢	$9.61	$368.99	+$75	58% 22563-16669 (39232)
GC GC-P	Overavg 48.5¢	$242.5	$290	+$47.5	57% 22242-16601 (38843)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 49¢	$85.06	$86.09	+$1.03	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$110.38	$26.48	-$83.91	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 33.1¢	$51.92	$25.86	-$26.05	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
RN1<$100	Overavg 78¢	$15.98	$18.94	+$2.96	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
HE Herdonia<$100	Overavg 49.9¢	$18.37	$18.23	-$0.15	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$10.35	$10.4	+$0.05	52% 27270-24782 (52052)

big8betzCTR

Under

Invested

$4,566.15

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

50%

58-57 (115)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$842.25

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$197.67

Record

64%

2154-1189 (3343)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$551.25

Value

$939.38

PnL

+$388.13

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$306.92

Value

$575.45

PnL

+$1.07

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$541.94

Value

$547.47

PnL

+$5.53

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$9.61

Value

$368.99

PnL

+$75

Record

58%

22563-16669 (39232)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$242.5

Value

$290

PnL

+$47.5

Record

57%

22242-16601 (38843)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$85.06

Value

$86.09

PnL

+$1.03

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$110.38

Value

$26.48

PnL

-$83.91

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.92

Value

$25.86

PnL

-$26.05

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$15.98

Value

$18.94

PnL

+$2.96

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

Herdonia<$100

Over

Invested

$18.37

Value

$18.23

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$10.35

Value

$10.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors Over 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.