Spread: Chargers (-3.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (64%) · Texans at 80¢ · $45K held · ends Nov 8

Chargers21¢Texans79¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 64%

Total Value

$45.0K

Combined PnL

$183.21

Smart Money Entry

79.9¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Chargers21%

Texans80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans7 traders

Total Value$35.5K

Total Shares44,512

Combined PnL+$10.91

Chargers4 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares46,211

Combined PnL+$172.3

Texans — 64%Chargers — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTexans 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Texansavg 80.6¢	$16.6K	$16.6K	-$33.63	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
HI hi774c	Texansavg 79.6¢	$10.7K	$8.5K	-$14.8	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
VeryLucky888	Texansavg 79¢	$10.1K	$8.0K	+$44.14	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Chargersavg 21¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$100	50% 583-574 (1157)
nigiri99CTR	Chargersavg 19.8¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$108.34	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
PU purplegattoCTR	Chargersavg 19¢	$10.9K	$2.2K	+$163.84	49% 6674-6865 (13539)
38 38791873984189	Texansavg 79¢	$3.6K	$1.6K	+$10.1	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
NM NM-P	Texansavg 79¢	$395	$397.5	+$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GC GC-P	Texansavg 79¢	$500	$397.5	+$2.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 79¢	$25	$10	+$0.1	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Chargersavg 18¢	$0.9	$1.02	+$0.12	50% 1560-1566 (3126)

HomeRunHazard

Texans

Invested

$16,605.64

Value

$16.6K

PnL

-$33.63

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

hi774c

Texans

Invested

$10,698.56

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$14.8

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

VeryLucky888

Texans

Invested

$10,067.39

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$44.14

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Chargers

Invested

$4,200

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$100

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

nigiri99CTR

Chargers

Invested

$3,024.88

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$108.34

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

purplegattoCTR

Chargers

Invested

$10,922

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$163.84

Record

49%

6674-6865 (13539)

38791873984189

Texans

Invested

$3,595

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.1

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

NM-P

Texans

Invested

$395

Value

$397.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GC-P

Texans

Invested

$500

Value

$397.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$25

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$0.9

Value

$1.02

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

1560-1566 (3126)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrTexans 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.