Spread: Texans (-4.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (30%) · Texans at 53¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 8

Texans53¢Chargers47¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.9K

Combined PnL

$2.89

Smart Money Entry

52.7¢ → 52.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans53%

Chargers48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans3 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares19,936

Combined PnL+$100.29

Chargers7 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares19,480

Combined PnL-$97.4

Texans — 30%Chargers — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpChargers 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrTexans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chargers 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Texansavg 52.7¢	$10.1K	$10.0K	+$95.73	49% 440-465 (905)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$65.73	54% 18193-15301 (33494)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$3.2K	$1.5K	-$15.3	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$787.01	$778.81	-$8.2	54% 771-644 (1415)
SH shovelingdigging	Texansavg 52¢	$400	$403.85	+$3.85	62% 368-227 (595)
NM NM-PCTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$500	$237.5	-$2.5	64% 9839-5498 (15337)
GC GC-PCTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$500	$237.5	-$2.5	64% 9875-5563 (15438)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Chargersavg 47¢	$692.94	$223.7	+$4.26	48% 60745-65398 (126143)
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 47¢	$121.12	$122.38	+$1.24
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 49.9¢	$96.37	$101.32	+$3.02
SN SnakeBallCTR	Chargersavg 48¢	$223.08	$220.76	-$2.32	51% 37415-36655 (74070)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Chargersavg 48¢	$81.21	$80.37	-$0.85	51% 3699-3621 (7320)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 49.5¢	$36	$15.98	+$0.72	49% 4461-4659 (9120)

Pwaddler

Texans

Invested

$10,096.98

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$95.73

Record

49%

440-465 (905)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chargers

Invested

$6,310

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$65.73

Record

54%

18193-15301 (33494)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$3,152.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.3

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

pltrkr111CTR

Chargers

Invested

$787.01

Value

$778.81

PnL

-$8.2

Record

54%

771-644 (1415)

shovelingdigging

Texans

Invested

$400

Value

$403.85

PnL

+$3.85

Record

62%

368-227 (595)

NM-PCTR

Chargers

Invested

$500

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

9839-5498 (15337)

GC-PCTR

Chargers

Invested

$500

Value

$237.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

64%

9875-5563 (15438)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Chargers

Invested

$692.94

Value

$223.7

PnL

+$4.26

Record

48%

60745-65398 (126143)

Both legs:

Chargers$121.1247¢+$1.24

Texans$96.3749.9¢+$3.02

SnakeBallCTR

Chargers

Invested

$223.08

Value

$220.76

PnL

-$2.32

Record

51%

37415-36655 (74070)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$81.21

Value

$80.37

PnL

-$0.85

Record

51%

3699-3621 (7320)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$36

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.72

Record

49%

4461-4659 (9120)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texans

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleChargers 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpChargers 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrTexans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Chargers 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.