Spread: Texans (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 55¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Texans55¢Chargers45¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 50%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$449.3

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 54.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans55%

Chargers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans5 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,511

Combined PnL+$479.58

Chargers5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,478

Combined PnL-$30.28

Texans — 50%Chargers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (5 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleChargers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTexans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Texansavg 55.7¢	$1.7K	$5.0K	+$499	57% 106-79 (185)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Chargersavg 32.2¢	$965.68	$914.69	-$50.99	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
RN1CTR	Chargersavg 33¢	$477.24	$513.39	+$36.15	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
VeryLucky888CTR	Chargersavg 45¢	$321.84	$318.31	-$3.52	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
65 6512395314597884	Texansavg 65.1¢	$133.4	$111.73	-$21.67	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chargersavg 45¢	$100.37	$99.25	-$1.11	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Chargersavg 48.5¢	$45.59	$34.78	-$10.81	47% 2124-2359 (4483)
HE Herdonia<$100	Texansavg 55¢	$12.67	$12.79	+$0.12	50% 4154-4225 (8379)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 55¢	$13.37	$11.95	+$1.98	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
38 38791873984189<$100	Texansavg 53¢	$3.38	$3.54	+$0.16	48% 70290-75979 (146269)

lightotunnel35

Texans

Invested

$1,672.28

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$499

Record

57%

106-79 (185)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Chargers

Invested

$965.68

Value

$914.69

PnL

-$50.99

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

RN1CTR

Chargers

Invested

$477.24

Value

$513.39

PnL

+$36.15

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$321.84

Value

$318.31

PnL

-$3.52

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

6512395314597884

Texans

Invested

$133.4

Value

$111.73

PnL

-$21.67

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chargers

Invested

$100.37

Value

$99.25

PnL

-$1.11

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$45.59

Value

$34.78

PnL

-$10.81

Record

47%

2124-2359 (4483)

Herdonia<$100

Texans

Invested

$12.67

Value

$12.79

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

4154-4225 (8379)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$13.37

Value

$11.95

PnL

+$1.98

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

38791873984189<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.38

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.16

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Texans

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (5 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleChargers 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTexans 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.