Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Texans (56%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-14.5)

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (30%) · Chargers at 45¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 8

Texans56¢Chargers44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$102

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 44.5¢

-44% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans56%

Chargers45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL-$10.21

Texans7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,823

Combined PnL+$112.21

Chargers — 30%Texans — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (6 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleChargers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTexans 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Chargersavg 80¢	$929.13	$917.47	-$11.66	59% 52401-37126 (89527)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Texansavg 50.6¢	$509.95	$559.8	+$49.84	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Chargersavg 78.6¢	$550.45	$553.02	+$2.57	54% 19989-16868 (36857)
38 38791873984189	Texansavg 20.2¢	$506.25	$532.8	+$26.55	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
nigiri99	Texansavg 20¢	$253.2	$278.52	+$25.32	45% 14433-17740 (32173)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Chargersavg 65¢	$234	$200	-$34	51% 5683-5537 (11220)
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 52¢	$104	$111	+$7
└ Chargers leg	Chargersavg 65¢	$130	$89	-$41
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Chargersavg 80¢	$44.8	$43.68	-$1.12	56% 8773-6961 (15734)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 43.1¢	$40.57	$40.86	+$4.49	52% 27270-24782 (52052)
AN Anon455<$100	Texansavg 44.6¢	$22.69	$28.21	+$5.52	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
RN1<$100	Texansavg 21¢	$1.33	$1.71	+$0.38	53% 70213-61793 (132006)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Texansavg 19¢	$1.09	$1.2	+$0.11	53% 14337-12645 (26982)

VeryLucky888CTR

Chargers

Invested

$929.13

Value

$917.47

PnL

-$11.66

Record

59%

52401-37126 (89527)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Texans

Invested

$509.95

Value

$559.8

PnL

+$49.84

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Chargers

Invested

$550.45

Value

$553.02

PnL

+$2.57

Record

54%

19989-16868 (36857)

38791873984189

Texans

Invested

$506.25

Value

$532.8

PnL

+$26.55

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

nigiri99

Texans

Invested

$253.2

Value

$278.52

PnL

+$25.32

Record

45%

14433-17740 (32173)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Chargers

Invested

$234

Value

$200

PnL

-$34

Record

51%

5683-5537 (11220)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.8

Value

$43.68

PnL

-$1.12

Record

56%

8773-6961 (15734)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$40.57

Value

$40.86

PnL

+$4.49

Record

52%

27270-24782 (52052)

Anon455<$100

Texans

Invested

$22.69

Value

$28.21

PnL

+$5.52

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

RN1<$100

Texans

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

70213-61793 (132006)

BoomLaLa<$100

Texans

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

14337-12645 (26982)

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Chargers) and the top 1000 (6 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleChargers 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrTexans 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedChargers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.