Texans vs. Browns: O/U 44.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 57¢ · $84 held · ended Nov 15

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$83.58

Combined PnL

$2.35

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$48.84

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$12.15

Under5 traders

Total Value$34.74

Total Shares81

Combined PnL-$9.81

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 49¢	$17.05	$22.79	+$5.74	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 44¢	$10.81	$14.86	+$4.05	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$12.6	$8.9	-$3.7	51% 572-546 (1118)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$12.17	$8.33	-$3.84	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$8.82	$7.84	-$0.98	50% 748-738 (1486)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$7.55	$6.58	-$0.96	49% 486-502 (988)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 37¢	$5.18	$6.16	+$0.98	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.25	$3.53	+$1.28	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
SU SunlineTickerCTR<$100	Underavg 62¢	$3.41	$3.08	-$0.33	69% 1738-777 (2515)
RN1<$100	Overavg 54¢	$0.79	$0.79	+$0.01	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Overavg 38¢	$0.61	$0.71	+$0.1	47% 1204-1385 (2589)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$17.05

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$5.74

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$10.81

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$4.05

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.6

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$3.7

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.17

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$3.84

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.82

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$0.98

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.55

Value

$6.58

PnL

-$0.96

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$5.18

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$0.98

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

6512395314597884<$100

Over

Invested

$2.25

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

SunlineTickerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.33

Record

69%

1738-777 (2515)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$0.79

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

SnakeBall<$100

Over

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.