Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Texans (98%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Browns (-3.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (64%) · Browns at 2.4¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Browns2¢Texans98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 64%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$113.4

Smart Money Entry

23.4¢ → 2.4¢

-90% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Browns2%

Texans98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans4 traders

Total Value$565.85

Total Shares680

Combined PnL+$151.33

Browns7 traders

Total Value$745.4

Total Shares4,356

Combined PnL-$264.73

Texans — 36%Browns — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Texansavg 61.2¢	$392.73	$532.63	+$139.9	49% 2896-2959 (5855)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Brownsavg 21¢	$267.96	$216.92	-$51.04	44% 349-436 (785)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Brownsavg 22¢	$229.92	$177.67	-$52.25	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR	Brownsavg 21.1¢	$202.61	$163.06	-$39.55	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
PR primmCTR	Brownsavg 38.7¢	$213.3	$93.7	-$119.6	59% 1193-836 (2029)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Brownsavg 21¢	$52.5	$42.5	-$10	39% 237-370 (607)
38 38791873984189CTR	Brownsavg 21¢	$1.3K	$34.54	+$7.7	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 63.1¢	$28.23	$17.57	+$8.95	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Brownsavg 17¢	$17	$17	-$0	50% 663-662 (1325)
NO NotJump<$100	Texansavg 63.7¢	$8.19	$10.67	+$2.48	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Texansavg 83¢	$4.98	$4.98	+$0	50% 4064-4063 (8127)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Texans

Invested

$392.73

Value

$532.63

PnL

+$139.9

Record

49%

2896-2959 (5855)

Forecastication2CTR

Browns

Invested

$267.96

Value

$216.92

PnL

-$51.04

Record

44%

349-436 (785)

MadridTimeCTR

Browns

Invested

$229.92

Value

$177.67

PnL

-$52.25

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LimousinCTR

Browns

Invested

$202.61

Value

$163.06

PnL

-$39.55

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

primmCTR

Browns

Invested

$213.3

Value

$93.7

PnL

-$119.6

Record

59%

1193-836 (2029)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$52.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

-$10

Record

39%

237-370 (607)

38791873984189CTR

Browns

Invested

$1,346.62

Value

$34.54

PnL

+$7.7

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$28.23

Value

$17.57

PnL

+$8.95

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$17

Value

$17

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

663-662 (1325)

NotJump<$100

Texans

Invested

$8.19

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$2.48

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

6512395314597884<$100

Texans

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 98%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-36 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2747.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

2847.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.