Spread: Browns (-2.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (80%) · Texans at 87¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Browns14¢Texans86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 80%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 86.5¢

+16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Browns14%

Texans87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares5,192

Combined PnL-$691.62

Browns2 traders

Total Value$768.98

Total Shares5,223

Combined PnL-$530.39

Texans — 80%Browns — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTexans 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Texansavg 74.8¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$124.4	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
AN Anon455	Texansavg 72.4¢	$1.5K	$852.77	-$649.27	49% 497-511 (1008)
nigiri99CTR	Brownsavg 31.2¢	$1.0K	$474.52	-$530.39	50% 760-746 (1506)
NE neymar1CTR	Brownsavg 14.7¢	$294.46	$294.46	+$0	— 5-14 (19)
alpheclabs2	Texansavg 85¢	$366.46	$177.19	-$189.27	45% 378-471 (849)
65 6512395314597884	Texansavg 85¢	$174.33	$166.2	-$8.13	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
PA Pan9X	Texansavg 72.7¢	$132.39	$99.08	-$7.5	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
MA MadridTime<$100	Texansavg 48.8¢	$26.42	$43.87	+$17.45	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
VE Venusian<$100	Texansavg 48.9¢	$26.42	$43.79	+$17.37	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
NO NotJump<$100	Texansavg 41.1¢	$3.42	$6.75	+$3.33	49% 1197-1222 (2419)

38791873984189

Texans

Invested

$1,716.53

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$124.4

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Anon455

Texans

Invested

$1,502.04

Value

$852.77

PnL

-$649.27

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

nigiri99CTR

Browns

Invested

$1,004.91

Value

$474.52

PnL

-$530.39

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

neymar1CTR

Browns

Invested

$294.46

Value

$294.46

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-14 (19)

alpheclabs2

Texans

Invested

$366.46

Value

$177.19

PnL

-$189.27

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

6512395314597884

Texans

Invested

$174.33

Value

$166.2

PnL

-$8.13

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Pan9X

Texans

Invested

$132.39

Value

$99.08

PnL

-$7.5

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

MadridTime<$100

Texans

Invested

$26.42

Value

$43.87

PnL

+$17.45

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Venusian<$100

Texans

Invested

$26.42

Value

$43.79

PnL

+$17.37

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

NotJump<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.42

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$3.33

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTexans 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.