Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Browns (60%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-9.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (44%) · Texans at 41¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Texans41¢Browns59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$12.28

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 40.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans41%

Browns60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,271

Combined PnL-$204.43

Browns5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,469

Combined PnL+$216.71

Texans — 44%Browns — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Browns 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Texansavg 48.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$156.2	51% 572-546 (1118)
NE neymar1	Brownsavg 48.3¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$215	— 5-14 (19)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Brownsavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$265.16	49% 486-502 (988)
└ Texans leg	Texansavg 51¢	$510	$780	+$270
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 56¢	$881.44	$346.28	-$535.16
PR primm	Brownsavg 51¢	$137.7	$139.05	+$1.35	59% 1183-828 (2011)
VE VenusianCTR	Texansavg 49¢	$132.3	$120.15	-$12.15	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TA takeormakeCTR	Texansavg 55.2¢	$107.7	$71.18	-$36.53	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
NO NotJump<$100	Brownsavg 46¢	$46	$46	+$0	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
MA MadridTime<$100	Brownsavg 49¢	$26.46	$25.92	-$0.54	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Brownsavg 44¢	$19.8	$20.7	+$0.9	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texansavg 51¢	$9.18	$9.63	+$0.45	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Texans

Invested

$1,841.93

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$156.2

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

neymar1

Browns

Invested

$1,450

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$215

Record

—

5-14 (19)

Anon455ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$1,391.44

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$265.16

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Both legs:

Texans$51051¢+$270

Browns$881.4456¢-$535.16

primm

Browns

Invested

$137.7

Value

$139.05

PnL

+$1.35

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

VenusianCTR

Texans

Invested

$132.3

Value

$120.15

PnL

-$12.15

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

takeormakeCTR

Texans

Invested

$107.7

Value

$71.18

PnL

-$36.53

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

NotJump<$100

Browns

Invested

$46

Value

$46

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

MadridTime<$100

Browns

Invested

$26.46

Value

$25.92

PnL

-$0.54

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

topdogbigboi<$100

Browns

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$0.9

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Browns 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.