Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Browns (54%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-7.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (55%) · Texans at 47¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texans47¢Browns53¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 55%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$18.37

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 46.5¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans47%

Browns54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,305

Combined PnL+$117.35

Browns5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,830

Combined PnL-$98.97

Texans — 55%Browns — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Texansavg 50.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$119.56	51% 572-546 (1118)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 43¢	$633.82	$648.56	+$14.74	49% 486-502 (988)
RN1CTR	Texansavg 52¢	$432.88	$437.04	+$4.16	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
CM cm2897	Brownsavg 61¢	$481.9	$347.6	-$134.3	49% 1237-1284 (2521)
LI Limousin	Brownsavg 48¢	$244.34	$262.16	+$17.82	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Texansavg 52¢	$72.39	$38.62	+$2.23	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$34	$32.98	-$1.02	44% 244-314 (558)
VE Venusian<$100	Brownsavg 48¢	$24.82	$27.66	+$2.84	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Texansavg 59¢	$29.5	$22.25	-$7.25	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Texansavg 52¢	$16.28	$12.1	-$0.34	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Brownsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.07	39% 1595-2514 (4109)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Texans

Invested

$1,162.28

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$119.56

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$633.82

Value

$648.56

PnL

+$14.74

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

RN1CTR

Texans

Invested

$432.88

Value

$437.04

PnL

+$4.16

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

cm2897

Browns

Invested

$481.9

Value

$347.6

PnL

-$134.3

Record

49%

1237-1284 (2521)

Limousin

Browns

Invested

$244.34

Value

$262.16

PnL

+$17.82

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$72.39

Value

$38.62

PnL

+$2.23

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

biying88888CTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$34

Value

$32.98

PnL

-$1.02

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

Venusian<$100

Browns

Invested

$24.82

Value

$27.66

PnL

+$2.84

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$29.5

Value

$22.25

PnL

-$7.25

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$16.28

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

topdogbigboi<$100

Browns

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.