Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Texans (59%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Texans (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (44%) · Browns at 42¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Texans59¢Browns41¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 44%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$59.73

Smart Money Entry

39.8¢ → 41.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans59%

Browns42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns4 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares8,619

Combined PnL+$145.56

Texans5 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,712

Combined PnL-$85.83

Browns — 44%Texans — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Brownsavg 39.8¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$127.06	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Texansavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$45	65% 22-12 (34)
DA darkumbreon88	Texansavg 61.1¢	$909.08	$869.83	-$39.25	62% 1084-678 (1762)
OD OddstormCTR	Brownsavg 40¢	$280	$290.5	+$10.5	35% 139-253 (392)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Brownsavg 40¢	$212.7	$220.68	+$7.98	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Texansavg 59¢	$84.62	$83.9	-$0.72	63% 275-163 (438)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 59.6¢	$47.06	$46.21	-$0.85	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
38 38791873984189<$100	Texansavg 59¢	$1.86	$1.84	-$0.02	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
SI Siddhartha1CTR<$100	Brownsavg 39¢	$1.17	$1.2	+$0.03	58% 113-81 (194)

VenusianCTR

Browns

Invested

$2,937.56

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$127.06

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Texans

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$45

Record

65%

22-12 (34)

darkumbreon88

Texans

Invested

$909.08

Value

$869.83

PnL

-$39.25

Record

62%

1084-678 (1762)

OddstormCTR

Browns

Invested

$280

Value

$290.5

PnL

+$10.5

Record

35%

139-253 (392)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Browns

Invested

$212.7

Value

$220.68

PnL

+$7.98

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

thatsabing0<$100

Texans

Invested

$84.62

Value

$83.9

PnL

-$0.72

Record

63%

275-163 (438)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$47.06

Value

$46.21

PnL

-$0.85

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

38791873984189<$100

Texans

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Siddhartha1CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.2

PnL

+$0.03

Record

58%

113-81 (194)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Texans 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.