Spread: Texans (-1.5)

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (50%) · Texans at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texans83¢Browns17¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$579.74

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 82.5¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans83%

Browns18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texans7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,685

Combined PnL-$350.04

Browns7 traders

Total Value$903.34

Total Shares2,893

Combined PnL-$229.7

Texans — 50%Browns — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (12 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTexans 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Texansavg 61.8¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$396.5	50% 760-746 (1506)
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 38¢	$588.04	$479.72	-$108.32	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Brownsavg 38¢	$385.54	$314.64	-$70.9	47% 507-561 (1068)
38 38791873984189<$100	Texansavg 50¢	$51	$70.38	+$19.38	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI LightParadox<$100	Texansavg 45¢	$25.25	$38.72	+$13.47	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
LI Limousin<$100	Texansavg 44.9¢	$22	$33.81	+$11.81	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
GA Gaditima<$100	Texansavg 58¢	$28.42	$33.81	+$5.39	49% 408-422 (830)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Brownsavg 55¢	$55.06	$31.03	-$24.03	49% 497-511 (1008)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Brownsavg 52¢	$49.29	$29.39	-$19.91	57% 3683-2778 (6461)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Texansavg 62¢	$31	$25	-$6	51% 579-567 (1146)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Brownsavg 31.8¢	$23.11	$22.53	-$0.58	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Brownsavg 38¢	$29.53	$22	-$7.53	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Texansavg 40¢	$3.33	$5.75	+$2.42	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Brownsavg 19¢	$2.47	$4.03	+$1.56	50% 4064-4063 (8127)

nigiri99

Texans

Invested

$2,082

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$396.5

Record

50%

760-746 (1506)

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$588.04

Value

$479.72

PnL

-$108.32

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Browns

Invested

$385.54

Value

$314.64

PnL

-$70.9

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

38791873984189<$100

Texans

Invested

$51

Value

$70.38

PnL

+$19.38

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

LightParadox<$100

Texans

Invested

$25.25

Value

$38.72

PnL

+$13.47

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Limousin<$100

Texans

Invested

$22

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$11.81

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Gaditima<$100

Texans

Invested

$28.42

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$5.39

Record

49%

408-422 (830)

Anon455CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$55.06

Value

$31.03

PnL

-$24.03

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$49.29

Value

$29.39

PnL

-$19.91

Record

57%

3683-2778 (6461)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Texans

Invested

$31

Value

$25

PnL

-$6

Record

51%

579-567 (1146)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$23.11

Value

$22.53

PnL

-$0.58

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$29.53

Value

$22

PnL

-$7.53

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

topdogbigboi<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.33

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$2.42

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$2.47

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$1.56

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

Research grade

NeutralTexans at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+21 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Texans. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Browns) and the top 1000 (12 on Texans) disagree here.

whaleTexans 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrTexans 60% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.