Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Texans, while the market favors Browns (87%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Texans (-17.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texans (33%) · Texans at 13¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texans13¢Browns87¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texans

Consensus Traders

Texans 33%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$275.63

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 13¢

-73% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexans at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texans13%

Browns87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns8 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,397

Combined PnL+$596.66

Texans4 traders

Total Value$841.16

Total Shares2,372

Combined PnL-$321.03

Browns — 67%Texans — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Brownsavg 51.9¢	$984.41	$1.5K	+$560.25	46% 653-760 (1413)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Texansavg 48¢	$898.8	$664.74	-$234.06	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
RN1CTR	Texansavg 54¢	$221.28	$145.47	-$75.81	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
65 6512395314597884	Brownsavg 57.8¢	$121.69	$121.06	-$0.63	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
38 38791873984189<$100	Brownsavg 57¢	$87.01	$98.46	+$11.45	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LI LightParadox<$100	Brownsavg 47¢	$26.46	$45.88	+$19.42	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 57.3¢	$32.1	$36.12	+$4.02	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Texansavg 53¢	$26.5	$23.75	-$2.75	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
LR lryyy<$100	Brownsavg 60¢	$6.6	$7.76	+$1.16	46% 998-1194 (2192)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Texansavg 39¢	$15.61	$7.2	-$8.41	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Brownsavg 62¢	$6.2	$7.05	+$0.85	39% 1595-2514 (4109)
AN Anon455<$100	Brownsavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.75	+$0.15	49% 486-502 (988)

omnibus-076daa

Browns

Invested

$984.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$560.25

Record

46%

653-760 (1413)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Texans

Invested

$898.8

Value

$664.74

PnL

-$234.06

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

RN1CTR

Texans

Invested

$221.28

Value

$145.47

PnL

-$75.81

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

6512395314597884

Browns

Invested

$121.69

Value

$121.06

PnL

-$0.63

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

38791873984189<$100

Browns

Invested

$87.01

Value

$98.46

PnL

+$11.45

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

LightParadox<$100

Browns

Invested

$26.46

Value

$45.88

PnL

+$19.42

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$32.1

Value

$36.12

PnL

+$4.02

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$26.5

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$2.75

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

lryyy<$100

Browns

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$1.16

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

VenusianCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$15.61

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$8.41

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

topdogbigboi<$100

Browns

Invested

$6.2

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$0.85

Record

39%

1595-2514 (4109)

Anon455<$100

Browns

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

Research grade

AvoidTexans at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Texans

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Browns 87%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texans wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.