Spread: Texans (-13.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (60%) · Browns at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Texans1¢Browns99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 60%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$155.48

Smart Money Entry

58.4¢ → 98.6¢

+69% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans1%

Browns99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,222

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Texans4 traders

Total Value$109.74

Total Shares3,174

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Browns — 60%Texans — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texans) and the top 1000 (10 on Browns) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Browns 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Brownsavg 54¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$1.1K	49% 1251-1296 (2547)
TO topdogbigboi	Brownsavg 94.5¢	$236.3	$242.38	+$6.07	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 76¢	$139.21	$172.91	+$33.7	49% 497-511 (1008)
RN1CTR	Texansavg 46¢	$1.2K	$76.46	$-1.1K	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
VE Venusian<$100	Brownsavg 45¢	$26.47	$55.53	+$29.06	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Texansavg 47.2¢	$219.05	$18.84	-$200.21	50% 4064-4063 (8127)
dips.CTR<$100	Texansavg 5.6¢	$11.2	$14	+$2.8	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
38 38791873984189<$100	Brownsavg 75¢	$9.75	$12.27	+$2.52	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 76¢	$21.02	$10.03	-$5.05	50% 2215-2229 (4444)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Texansavg 49¢	$3.78	$0.43	-$3.35	38% 1401-2279 (3680)

cm2897

Browns

Invested

$1,461.78

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

49%

1251-1296 (2547)

topdogbigboi

Browns

Invested

$236.3

Value

$242.38

PnL

+$6.07

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$139.21

Value

$172.91

PnL

+$33.7

Record

49%

497-511 (1008)

RN1CTR

Texans

Invested

$1,153.22

Value

$76.46

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Venusian<$100

Browns

Invested

$26.47

Value

$55.53

PnL

+$29.06

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

6512395314597884CTR

Texans

Invested

$219.05

Value

$18.84

PnL

-$200.21

Record

50%

4064-4063 (8127)

dips.CTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$11.2

Value

$14

PnL

+$2.8

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

38791873984189<$100

Browns

Invested

$9.75

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$2.52

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$21.02

Value

$10.03

PnL

-$5.05

Record

50%

2215-2229 (4444)

LimousinCTR<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.78

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$3.35

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Texans) and the top 1000 (10 on Browns) disagree here.

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Browns 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.