Packers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 56¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$4.5K
-$25.63
55.4¢ → 56.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 55.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$74.39 | 54% 18236-15351 (33587) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$80.58 | 58% 46962-33856 (80818) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 44.8¢ | $495.38 | $475.15 | -$14.7 | 48% 61607-66479 (128086) |
NM NM-PCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $220 | $215 | -$5 | 64% 10038-5607 (15645) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $198.63 | $194.63 | -$4.27 | 51% 3806-3729 (7535) |
PW Pwaddler | Underavg 54.7¢ | $140.15 | $144.64 | +$6.4 | 49% 455-480 (935) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $110 | $107.5 | -$1.25 | 53% 12489-11221 (23710) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 44.8¢ | $15.23 | $14.62 | -$0.61 | 54% 9944-8355 (18299) |
Invested
$2,267.9
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$74.39
Record
54%
18236-15351 (33587)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,176.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$80.58
Record
58%
46962-33856 (80818)
Invested
$495.38
Value
$475.15
PnL
-$14.7
Record
48%
61607-66479 (128086)
Invested
$220
Value
$215
PnL
-$5
Record
64%
10038-5607 (15645)
Invested
$198.63
Value
$194.63
PnL
-$4.27
Record
51%
3806-3729 (7535)
Invested
$140.15
Value
$144.64
PnL
+$6.4
Record
49%
455-480 (935)
Invested
$110
Value
$107.5
PnL
-$1.25
Record
53%
12489-11221 (23710)
Invested
$15.23
Value
$14.62
PnL
-$0.61
Record
54%
9944-8355 (18299)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.