Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Packers vs. Patriots: O/U 44.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 49¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 8

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$19.5K

Combined PnL

-$175

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares38,600

Combined PnL-$162.58

Over3 traders

Total Value$765.76

Total Shares1,492

Combined PnL-$12.42

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$17.5K	$17.3K	-$162.87	54% 383-330 (713)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 49¢	$769.44	$761.59	-$7.85	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 52¢	$522.89	$508.99	-$9.92	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 49¢	$487.71	$492.79	+$5.08	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52¢	$163.63	$162.05	-$1.58	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 48¢	$120.87	$124.35	+$3.48	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
HE Herdonia<$100	Overavg 52¢	$95.64	$94.72	-$0.92	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$60	$29.1	-$0.3	50% 8554-8723 (17277)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$32.12	$17.16	-$0.18	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$1.77	$1.83	+$0.06	54% 19942-16823 (36765)

gmpm2CTR

Under

Invested

$17,465.25

Value

$17.3K

PnL

-$162.87

Record

54%

383-330 (713)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$769.44

Value

$761.59

PnL

-$7.85

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$522.89

Value

$508.99

PnL

-$9.92

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$487.71

Value

$492.79

PnL

+$5.08

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$163.63

Value

$162.05

PnL

-$1.58

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$120.87

Value

$124.35

PnL

+$3.48

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Herdonia<$100

Over

Invested

$95.64

Value

$94.72

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

RLWGCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

8554-8723 (17277)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.12

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$0.18

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.83

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+37 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrUnder 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.