Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Packers, while the market favors Patriots (62%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Packers vs. Patriots

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (67%) · Packers at 39¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Packers39¢Patriots61¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 67%

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$14.34

Smart Money Entry

39.6¢ → 38.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Patriots 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Packers39%

Patriots62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares10,040

Combined PnL-$91.55

Patriots3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares5,546

Combined PnL+$77.21

Packers — 67%Patriots — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPackers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrPackers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Packersavg 39.5¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$90.77	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
MA MAGATheeStallion	Patriotsavg 60¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$75.41	58% 284-204 (488)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Packersavg 40¢	$432.38	$421.57	-$16.21	51% 37671-36895 (74566)
DV dv-pm	Patriotsavg 61¢	$325.13	$327.8	+$2.67	49% 3327-3529 (6856)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Packersavg 39¢	$203.19	$203.19	-$2.61	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
38 38791873984189CTR	Packersavg 40.5¢	$339.26	$103.51	+$17.89	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Packersavg 38¢	$9.81	$10.06	+$0.13	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
GH ghorrock<$100	Patriotsavg 61¢	$28.34	$9.34	-$0.86	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Packersavg 38¢	$0.61	$0.63	+$0.02	69% 7208-3190 (10398)

VeryLucky888CTR

Packers

Invested

$3,602.01

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$90.77

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

MAGATheeStallion

Patriots

Invested

$2,999.4

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$75.41

Record

58%

284-204 (488)

SnakeBallCTR

Packers

Invested

$432.38

Value

$421.57

PnL

-$16.21

Record

51%

37671-36895 (74566)

dv-pm

Patriots

Invested

$325.13

Value

$327.8

PnL

+$2.67

Record

49%

3327-3529 (6856)

HerdoniaCTR

Packers

Invested

$203.19

Value

$203.19

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

38791873984189CTR

Packers

Invested

$339.26

Value

$103.51

PnL

+$17.89

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

NM-PCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$9.81

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.13

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

ghorrock<$100

Patriots

Invested

$28.34

Value

$9.34

PnL

-$0.86

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

69%

7208-3190 (10398)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Patriots 62%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePackers 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpPackers 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrPackers 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPackers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Packers 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.