Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Lions, while the market favors Dolphins (57%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Lions (-7.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (60%) · Lions at 43¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Lions43¢Dolphins57¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lions

Consensus Traders

Lions 60%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$84.38

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 42.5¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLions at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lions43%

Dolphins57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Dolphins4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,370

Combined PnL+$16.1

Lions6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares8,403

Combined PnL-$100.47

Dolphins — 40%Lions — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lions) and the top 1000 (8 on Dolphins) disagree here.

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDolphins 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrDolphins 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Dolphinsavg 55.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$20.28	49% 455-483 (938)
VeryLucky888CTR	Lionsavg 44.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$29.59	58% 47081-33963 (81044)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Lionsavg 46¢	$794.87	$734.4	-$60.48	60% 100-67 (167)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Dolphinsavg 56.7¢	$567.39	$559.99	-$7.39	53% 1117-977 (2094)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Lionsavg 45¢	$492.16	$480.8	-$5.89	50% 37972-37225 (75197)
NM NM-PCTR	Lionsavg 44.5¢	$276.39	$273.11	-$3.28	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
38 38791873984189CTR	Lionsavg 44¢	$250	$108.75	-$1.25	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
HE Herdonia<$100	Dolphinsavg 54¢	$88.25	$91.52	+$2.45	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Dolphinsavg 55.7¢	$84.61	$85	+$0.76	49% 379-401 (780)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Lionsavg 42¢	$1.42	$1.44	+$0.02	46% 5257-6101 (11358)

Pwaddler

Dolphins

Invested

$2,260.21

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$20.28

Record

49%

455-483 (938)

VeryLucky888CTR

Lions

Invested

$2,110.22

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$29.59

Record

58%

47081-33963 (81044)

lightotunnel35CTR

Lions

Invested

$794.87

Value

$734.4

PnL

-$60.48

Record

60%

100-67 (167)

TheComboConnoisseur

Dolphins

Invested

$567.39

Value

$559.99

PnL

-$7.39

Record

53%

1117-977 (2094)

SnakeBallCTR

Lions

Invested

$492.16

Value

$480.8

PnL

-$5.89

Record

50%

37972-37225 (75197)

NM-PCTR

Lions

Invested

$276.39

Value

$273.11

PnL

-$3.28

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

38791873984189CTR

Lions

Invested

$250

Value

$108.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

Herdonia<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$88.25

Value

$91.52

PnL

+$2.45

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Dolphins

Invested

$84.61

Value

$85

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

379-401 (780)

hi774cCTR<$100

Lions

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.02

Record

46%

5257-6101 (11358)

Research grade

NeutralLions at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Lions

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Dolphins 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Lions) and the top 1000 (8 on Dolphins) disagree here.

whaleDolphins 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpDolphins 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrDolphins 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedLions 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Dolphins 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lions wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.