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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Broncos vs. Panthers: O/U 38.5

Resolved Over. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Under 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,007

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL+$775.01

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 47.1¢	$2.8K	—	$-2.8K	47% 242-268 (510)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$367.1	54% 3943-3319 (7262)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$627.3	$1.4K	+$766.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$399.6	—	-$399.6
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Overavg 45¢	$577.43	$1.3K	+$682.57	50% 5215-5114 (10329)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 46¢	$74.43	$116.37	+$41.94	47% 2130-2385 (4515)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 70¢	$84.01	$84.01	+$25.2	53% 13686-12062 (25748)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 46¢	$32.84	$58.13	+$25.29	49% 2208-2325 (4533)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$84.01	—	-$25.2	48% 70290-75979 (146269)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$10	—	-$5.6	46% 33409-38908 (72317)

Invested

$2,783.11

Value

—

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

47%

242-268 (510)

Anon455ARB<$100

Invested

$1,026.9

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$367.1

Record

54%

3943-3319 (7262)

Both legs:

Over$627.345¢+$766.7

Under$399.654¢-$399.6

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Invested

$577.43

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$682.57

Record

50%

5215-5114 (10329)

Invested

$74.43

Value

$116.37

PnL

+$41.94

Record

47%

2130-2385 (4515)

justaluckydude<$100

Invested

$84.01

Value

$84.01

PnL

+$25.2

Record

53%

13686-12062 (25748)

Invested

$32.84

Value

$58.13

PnL

+$25.29

Record

49%

2208-2325 (4533)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$84.01

Value

—

PnL

-$25.2

Record

48%

70290-75979 (146269)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

—

PnL

-$5.6

Record

46%

33409-38908 (72317)

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xf4d1595f...79e012

Slug

nfl-den-car-2026-11-08-total-38pt5

Traders in this Market

biying88888

Under — $0

Anon455

Arbitrage — excluded

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Over — $1.3K

MadridTime

Over — $116.37

justaluckydude

Over — $84.01

Limousin

Over — $58.13

38791873984189

Under — $0

ferrariChampions2026

Under — $0

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