Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Broncos (88%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Panthers (-3.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (50%) · Panthers at 13¢ · $41K held · ended Nov 8

Panthers13¢Broncos87¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 50%

Total Value

$40.6K

Combined PnL

$-20.1K

Smart Money Entry

28.4¢ → 12.5¢

-56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPanthers at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Broncos 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers13%

Broncos88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos5 traders

Total Value$30.4K

Total Shares33,967

Combined PnL+$3.84

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares102,256

Combined PnL$-20.1K

Broncos — 50%Panthers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Broncos) and the top 1000 (9 on Panthers) disagree here.

whalePanthers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrPanthers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBroncos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Broncosavg 70.6¢	$2.3K	$20.0K	-$132.79	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Panthersavg 28.5¢	$3.8K	$10.0K	$-20.0K	50% 585-578 (1163)
VeryLucky888	Broncosavg 72¢	$10.2K	$9.5K	-$51.75	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
OD Oddstorm	Broncosavg 71¢	$435.23	$563.96	+$128.73	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Broncosavg 73¢	$296	$354.79	+$58.79	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
38 38791873984189CTR	Panthersavg 27.2¢	$83.75	$100	+$16.25	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
NM NM-PCTR	Panthersavg 28¢	$140	$62.5	-$77.5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Panthersavg 28¢	$140	$62.5	-$77.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Broncosavg 73¢	$8.71	$9.57	+$0.86	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Panthersavg 28¢	$0.48	$0.51	+$0.03	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

HomeRunHazard

Broncos

Invested

$2,288.02

Value

$20.0K

PnL

-$132.79

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Panthers

Invested

$3,805.63

Value

$10.0K

PnL

$-20.0K

Record

50%

585-578 (1163)

VeryLucky888

Broncos

Invested

$10,224.31

Value

$9.5K

PnL

-$51.75

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Oddstorm

Broncos

Invested

$435.23

Value

$563.96

PnL

+$128.73

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Broncos

Invested

$296

Value

$354.79

PnL

+$58.79

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

38791873984189CTR

Panthers

Invested

$83.75

Value

$100

PnL

+$16.25

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

NM-PCTR

Panthers

Invested

$140

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$77.5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Panthers

Invested

$140

Value

$62.5

PnL

-$77.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

6512395314597884<$100

Broncos

Invested

$8.71

Value

$9.57

PnL

+$0.86

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.03

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

AvoidPanthers at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Broncos 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Late

51h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Broncos) and the top 1000 (9 on Panthers) disagree here.

whalePanthers 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrPanthers 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedBroncos 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Panthers 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.1%

12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$610.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

710.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.