Spread: Broncos (-8.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (43%) · Panthers at 96¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 8

Broncos5¢Panthers95¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 43%

Total Value

$10.3K

Combined PnL

$673.47

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 95.5¢

+62% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos5%

Panthers96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Broncos4 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,923

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Panthers3 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares9,477

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Broncos — 57%Panthers — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (7 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleBroncos 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrPanthers 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Broncos 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Broncosavg 41¢	$9.4K	$6.0K	+$2.2K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
CUTJALENHURTS	Panthersavg 59¢	$5.5K	$3.8K	$-1.7K	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
nigiri99CTR	Broncosavg 26¢	$107.64	$267.03	+$159.39	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Broncosavg 26¢	$26.78	$58.71	+$31.93	54% 591-501 (1092)
BO BoomLaLa	Panthersavg 71¢	$100	$37.5	-$33.5	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Broncosavg 51¢	$20.03	$22.36	+$2.33	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1<$100	Panthersavg 62¢	$5.47	$2.44	-$0.96	53% 70182-61748 (131930)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Broncos

Invested

$9,366.6

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

CUTJALENHURTS

Panthers

Invested

$5,529.23

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

nigiri99CTR

Broncos

Invested

$107.64

Value

$267.03

PnL

+$159.39

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$26.78

Value

$58.71

PnL

+$31.93

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

BoomLaLa

Panthers

Invested

$100

Value

$37.5

PnL

-$33.5

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$20.03

Value

$22.36

PnL

+$2.33

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1<$100

Panthers

Invested

$5.47

Value

$2.44

PnL

-$0.96

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Panthers) and the top 1000 (7 on Broncos) disagree here.

whaleBroncos 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrPanthers 50% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Broncos 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.