Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (33%) · Panthers at 56¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 8

Broncos44¢Panthers56¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 33%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

-$220.03

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 56.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 15 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Broncos44%

Panthers56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares21,136

Combined PnL-$261.82

Broncos10 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares25,106

Combined PnL+$41.79

Panthers — 33%Broncos — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Broncos 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Panthersavg 58¢	$10.0K	$9.7K	-$255.33	53% 372-326 (698)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Broncosavg 42.7¢	$7.0K	$7.1K	+$78.16	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 42.7¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$65.24
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$12.93
VeryLucky888CTR	Broncosavg 43¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$50.29	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Broncosavg 44¢	$3.5K	$3.4K	-$35.68	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Broncosavg 43¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	+$23.29	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$31.65
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 56.2¢	$835.56	$840.58	-$8.36
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Panthersavg 57¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.5	55% 3748-3063 (6811)
LI LimousinCTR	Broncosavg 43¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.96	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Broncosavg 43¢	$671.24	$679.05	+$7.81	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
HI hi774cCTR	Broncosavg 43¢	$668.38	$676.15	+$7.77	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
0xheavy888	Panthersavg 56¢	$630	$635.62	+$5.62	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Panthersavg 56¢	$495	$500	+$5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 56¢	$280	$282.5	+$2.5
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 43¢	$215	$217.5	+$2.5
NM NM-PARB<$100	Panthersavg 56¢	$495	$500	+$5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 56¢	$280	$282.5	+$2.5
└ Broncos leg	Broncosavg 43¢	$215	$217.5	+$2.5
VE VenusianCTR	Broncosavg 43¢	$254.76	$251.8	-$2.96	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Broncosavg 42.7¢	$84.61	$84.15	-$0.99	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HE Herdonia<$100	Panthersavg 56.3¢	$65.54	$66.55	+$1.68	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Panthersavg 57¢	$34.39	$34.09	-$0.3	46% 931-1099 (2030)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Broncosavg 43¢	$30.66	$30.3	-$0.36	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Broncosavg 43¢	$21.07	$20.83	-$0.25	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Broncosavg 43¢	$19.58	$19.79	+$0.21	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

gmpm2

Panthers

Invested

$10,001.15

Value

$9.7K

PnL

-$255.33

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$7,021.85

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$78.16

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Both legs:

Broncos$5,574.1642.7¢+$65.24

Panthers$1,447.6956¢+$12.93

VeryLucky888CTR

Broncos

Invested

$4,311.84

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$50.29

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Broncos

Invested

$3,456.09

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$35.68

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Broncos

Invested

$2,354.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$23.29

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Broncos$1,294.0843¢+$31.65

Panthers$835.5656.2¢-$8.36

JAMJAMJAM4

Panthers

Invested

$1,538.99

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.5

Record

55%

3748-3063 (6811)

LimousinCTR

Broncos

Invested

$1,372.2

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.96

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

SnakeBallCTR

Broncos

Invested

$671.24

Value

$679.05

PnL

+$7.81

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

hi774cCTR

Broncos

Invested

$668.38

Value

$676.15

PnL

+$7.77

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

0xheavy888

Panthers

Invested

$630

Value

$635.62

PnL

+$5.62

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

GC-PARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

Invested

$495

Value

$500

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Invested

$254.76

Value

$251.8

PnL

-$2.96

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$84.61

Value

$84.15

PnL

-$0.99

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Herdonia<$100

Panthers

Invested

$65.54

Value

$66.55

PnL

+$1.68

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Panthers

Invested

$34.39

Value

$34.09

PnL

-$0.3

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$30.66

Value

$30.3

PnL

-$0.36

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$21.07

Value

$20.83

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Broncos

Invested

$19.58

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

5 of 15 top traders (33%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpPanthers 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPanthers 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Broncos 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.