Cowboys vs. Colts: O/U 50.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 54¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 8

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$61.08

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 53.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares16,609

Combined PnL+$63.83

Under9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,814

Combined PnL-$2.74

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Overavg 55¢	$7.9K	$7.9K	+$71.38	51% 1024-996 (2020)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$3.0K	$1.3K	-$15	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 53.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$7.56	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 44¢	$614.29	$635.71	+$21.43	46% 5609-6517 (12126)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$506.25	$500.63	-$5.63	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 45¢	$508.93	$226.47	-$2.46	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 45¢	$500	$222.5	-$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$87.42	$88.37	+$0.95	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$13.34	$13.49	+$0.15	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 45.4¢	$11.81	$12.09	+$0.28	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.99	$3.03	+$0.03	54% 19942-16823 (36765)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Over

Invested

$7,850.72

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$71.38

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$3,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$15

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,259.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$7.56

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$614.29

Value

$635.71

PnL

+$21.43

Record

46%

5609-6517 (12126)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$506.25

Value

$500.63

PnL

-$5.63

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$508.93

Value

$226.47

PnL

-$2.46

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$222.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.42

Value

$88.37

PnL

+$0.95

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Anon455CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.34

Value

$13.49

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.81

Value

$12.09

PnL

+$0.28

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.99

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.