Spread: Colts (-3.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cowboys (60%) · Cowboys at 81¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 8

Colts20¢Cowboys80¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cowboys

Consensus Traders

Cowboys 60%

Total Value

$37.4K

Combined PnL

-$772.17

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 80.5¢

-4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Colts20%

Cowboys81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$36.8K

Total Shares43,825

Combined PnL-$806.75

Colts4 traders

Total Value$531.32

Total Shares2,952

Combined PnL+$34.58

Cowboys — 60%Colts — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCowboys 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Cowboysavg 83¢	$25.5K	$25.3K	-$408.87	54% 18472-15543 (34015)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Cowboysavg 85¢	$8.5K	$8.1K	-$249.98	50% 549-553 (1102)
VeryLucky888	Cowboysavg 83¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$60.45	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
SE sentrio	Cowboysavg 83¢	$794.06	$774.93	-$19.13	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
38 38791873984189	Cowboysavg 83.6¢	$2.1K	$186.88	-$67.27	48% 62379-67237 (129616)
GA GaditimaCTR	Coltsavg 17¢	$170	$180	+$10	47% 7499-8311 (15810)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Coltsavg 17.4¢	$129.92	$134.22	+$4.3	54% 540-457 (997)
BA BayupatiCTR	Coltsavg 17.4¢	$107.18	$110.73	+$3.08	49% 267-278 (545)
OD OddstormCTR	Coltsavg 16.9¢	$89.17	$106.37	+$17.2	48% 7449-7981 (15430)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 83.6¢	$28.85	$22.86	-$1.05	54% 10438-8758 (19196)

HomeRunHazard

Cowboys

Invested

$25,549.69

Value

$25.3K

PnL

-$408.87

Record

54%

18472-15543 (34015)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Cowboys

Invested

$8,502.74

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$249.98

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

VeryLucky888

Cowboys

Invested

$2,539.84

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$60.45

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

sentrio

Cowboys

Invested

$794.06

Value

$774.93

PnL

-$19.13

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

38791873984189

Cowboys

Invested

$2,115.72

Value

$186.88

PnL

-$67.27

Record

48%

62379-67237 (129616)

GaditimaCTR

Colts

Invested

$170

Value

$180

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

7499-8311 (15810)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Colts

Invested

$129.92

Value

$134.22

PnL

+$4.3

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

BayupatiCTR

Colts

Invested

$107.18

Value

$110.73

PnL

+$3.08

Record

49%

267-278 (545)

OddstormCTR

Colts

Invested

$89.17

Value

$106.37

PnL

+$17.2

Record

48%

7449-7981 (15430)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$28.85

Value

$22.86

PnL

-$1.05

Record

54%

10438-8758 (19196)

Research grade

NeutralCowboys at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cowboys

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cowboys. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleCowboys 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCowboys 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedCowboys 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cowboys 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cowboys wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.