Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (53%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (75%) · Colts at 47¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys53¢Colts47¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 75%

Total Value

$43.5K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 47¢

-27% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys53%

Colts47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts9 traders

Total Value$35.3K

Total Shares54,592

Combined PnL-$637.92

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,794

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Colts — 75%Cowboys — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Coltsavg 64.8¢	$13.8K	$15.4K	+$1.6K	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Cowboysavg 37¢	$5.8K	$8.1K	+$2.3K	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
HI hi774cCTR	Coltsavg 64.8¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$18.58	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Coltsavg 63.7¢	$10.2K	$7.3K	$-2.9K	54% 1452-1257 (2709)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Coltsavg 64.1¢	$3.2K	$3.7K	+$422.5	54% 591-501 (1092)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Coltsavg 65¢	$1.0K	$747.66	+$77.79	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR	Coltsavg 64¢	$320	$362.5	+$42.5	51% 413-389 (802)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Coltsavg 50¢	$232	$290	+$58	56% 195-151 (346)
CM cm2897<$100	Cowboysavg 37¢	$62.16	$89.88	+$27.72	50% 2563-2606 (5169)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Coltsavg 64¢	$66.15	$76.13	+$9.98	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Cowboysavg 47¢	$7.3	$8.31	+$1.01	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Coltsavg 64¢	$3.2	$2.25	-$0.95	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

nigiri99CTR

Colts

Invested

$13,776.63

Value

$15.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

ferrariChampions2026

Cowboys

Invested

$5,776.03

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

hi774cCTR

Colts

Invested

$7,459.55

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$18.58

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Colts

Invested

$10,151.8

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

54%

1452-1257 (2709)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Colts

Invested

$3,233.27

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$422.5

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

BoomLaLaCTR

Colts

Invested

$1,031.26

Value

$747.66

PnL

+$77.79

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR

Colts

Invested

$320

Value

$362.5

PnL

+$42.5

Record

51%

413-389 (802)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Colts

Invested

$232

Value

$290

PnL

+$58

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

cm2897<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$62.16

Value

$89.88

PnL

+$27.72

Record

50%

2563-2606 (5169)

RLWGCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$66.15

Value

$76.13

PnL

+$9.98

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$7.3

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$1.01

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrColts 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.2%

47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$103.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

203.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.