Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (56%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (73%) · Colts at 44¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys56¢Colts44¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$649.47

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 43.5¢

-30% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys56%

Colts44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares7,767

Combined PnL+$331.59

Cowboys3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,384

Combined PnL+$317.88

Colts — 73%Cowboys — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	Coltsavg 63¢	$3.5K	$2.4K	+$191.84	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Coltsavg 59.1¢	$2.0K	$1.7K	-$389.6	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 59.1¢	$1.3K	$969.83	-$347.28
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 60¢	$725.48	$683.16	-$42.32
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cowboysavg 41.8¢	$906.79	$1.2K	+$297.28	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
PU purplegattoCTR	Coltsavg 65¢	$825.44	$897.1	+$71.66	49% 6674-6872 (13546)
nigiri99CTR	Coltsavg 63¢	$768.6	$835.7	+$67.1	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Coltsavg 63¢	$692	$474.02	+$38.06	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Coltsavg 50¢	$248.32	$273.32	+$25	56% 195-151 (346)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Coltsavg 58.8¢	$250.11	$187.42	-$62.69	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
VeryLucky888CTR	Coltsavg 62¢	$159.12	$160.29	+$1.17	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JU justaluckydude	Cowboysavg 47¢	$103.99	$121.24	+$17.25	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Coltsavg 53¢	$9.47	$8.92	-$0.56	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 41.6¢	$14.15	$5.65	+$3.35	52% 27203-24713 (51916)

38791873984189CTR

Colts

Invested

$3,500

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$191.84

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Anon455ARB<$100

Colts

Invested

$2,042.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$389.6

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

Both legs:

Colts$1,317.1159.1¢-$347.28

Cowboys$725.4860¢-$42.32

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cowboys

Invested

$906.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$297.28

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

purplegattoCTR

Colts

Invested

$825.44

Value

$897.1

PnL

+$71.66

Record

49%

6674-6872 (13546)

nigiri99CTR

Colts

Invested

$768.6

Value

$835.7

PnL

+$67.1

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

BoomLaLaCTR

Colts

Invested

$692

Value

$474.02

PnL

+$38.06

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Colts

Invested

$248.32

Value

$273.32

PnL

+$25

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

6512395314597884CTR

Colts

Invested

$250.11

Value

$187.42

PnL

-$62.69

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

VeryLucky888CTR

Colts

Invested

$159.12

Value

$160.29

PnL

+$1.17

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

justaluckydude

Cowboys

Invested

$103.99

Value

$121.24

PnL

+$17.25

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$9.47

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$14.15

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$3.35

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrColts 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.