Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Colts, while the market favors Cowboys (52%). 13 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)

13 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (72%) · Colts at 49¢ · $66K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys52¢Colts48¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 72%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$65.8K

Combined PnL

$4.2K

Smart Money Entry

59.4¢ → 48.5¢

-18% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys52%

Colts49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$26.1K

Total Shares53,117

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Colts13 traders

Total Value$37.0K

Total Shares60,796

Combined PnL+$692.35

Cowboys — 28%Colts — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrColts 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Cowboysavg 42¢	$20.0K	$23.6K	+$3.6K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Coltsavg 58¢	$15.2K	$16.7K	+$1.4K	41% 643-941 (1584)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Coltsavg 68¢	$6.7K	$6.2K	-$442.88	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
IC ic4creamCTR	Coltsavg 58.7¢	$6.0K	$5.4K	-$640.46	56% 2873-2262 (5135)
VeryLucky888CTR	Coltsavg 57¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$27.66	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Coltsavg 58¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$332.48	55% 3820-3102 (6922)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Cowboysavg 41.9¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$237.13	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Cowboys leg	Cowboysavg 41.9¢	$1.8K	$2.1K	+$325.58
└ Colts leg	Coltsavg 58.4¢	$667.94	$577.23	-$88.45
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Cowboysavg 49¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.94	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
RN1CTR	Coltsavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
AN Anon455	Cowboysavg 40.5¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$94.05	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Coltsavg 60.5¢	$423.5	$444.5	+$21	48% 214-229 (443)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Coltsavg 60¢	$240	$202	-$38	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Coltsavg 51¢	$102	$101	-$1	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$26.74	$28.13	+$1.39	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Coltsavg 55.3¢	$15.21	$15.75	+$0.55	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cowboysavg 41.3¢	$20.49	$8.49	+$2.13	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Coltsavg 58.5¢	$4.68	$5.08	+$0.4	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
GH ghorrock<$100	Cowboysavg 46¢	$2.43	$2.61	+$0.18	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Coltsavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.53	+$0.13	49% 2142-2260 (4402)

takeormake

Cowboys

Invested

$19,999.53

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

BreakTheBankCTR

Colts

Invested

$15,217.3

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

SunlineTickerCTR

Colts

Invested

$6,692.55

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$442.88

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

ic4creamCTR

Colts

Invested

$6,036.94

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$640.46

Record

56%

2873-2262 (5135)

VeryLucky888CTR

Colts

Invested

$3,428.6

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$27.66

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Colts

Invested

$2,889.98

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$332.48

Record

55%

3820-3102 (6922)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2,545.19

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$237.13

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Cowboys$1,792.7741.9¢+$325.58

Colts$667.9458.4¢-$88.45

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Cowboys

Invested

$1,366.46

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.94

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

RN1CTR

Colts

Invested

$1,224

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Anon455

Cowboys

Invested

$1,265.73

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$94.05

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Colts

Invested

$423.5

Value

$444.5

PnL

+$21

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Colts

Invested

$240

Value

$202

PnL

-$38

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

6512395314597884CTR

Colts

Invested

$102

Value

$101

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

VenusianCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$26.74

Value

$28.13

PnL

+$1.39

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$15.21

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$0.55

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Pan9X<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$20.49

Value

$8.49

PnL

+$2.13

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$4.68

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$0.4

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

ghorrock<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$2.43

Value

$2.61

PnL

+$0.18

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

LimousinCTR<$100

Colts

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

13 of 18 top traders (72%)Underdog side (market favors Cowboys 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrColts 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedColts 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.