Spread: Cowboys (-13.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (75%) · Colts at 70¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Colts
8
Colts 75%
$5.8K
$419.69
72.6¢ → 69.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralColts at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nigiri99 | Coltsavg 75¢ | $3.9K | $4.2K | +$338.66 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Cowboysavg 25¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$1.68 | 52% 5538-5164 (10702) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Coltsavg 50¢ | $252.5 | $326 | +$73.5 | 56% 195-151 (346) |
AN Anon455 | Coltsavg 56¢ | $111.98 | $134.97 | +$23 | 54% 3933-3292 (7225) |
 RN1CTR | Cowboysavg 28¢ | $199.96 | $36.99 | -$19 | 53% 70182-61748 (131930) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Coltsavg 72¢ | $14.22 | $14.67 | +$0.45 | 48% 70249-75962 (146211) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Coltsavg 72¢ | $9.36 | $10.6 | +$1.24 | 48% 8324-8883 (17207) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Coltsavg 72¢ | $5.53 | $5.71 | +$0.18 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
nigiri99Invested
$3,907.49
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$338.66
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
Invested
$1,036.18
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$1.68
Record
52%
5538-5164 (10702)
Invested
$252.5
Value
$326
PnL
+$73.5
Record
56%
195-151 (346)
Invested
$111.98
Value
$134.97
PnL
+$23
Record
54%
3933-3292 (7225)
RN1CTRInvested
$199.96
Value
$36.99
PnL
-$19
Record
53%
70182-61748 (131930)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$14.67
PnL
+$0.45
Record
48%
70249-75962 (146211)
Invested
$9.36
Value
$10.6
PnL
+$1.24
Record
48%
8324-8883 (17207)
Invested
$5.53
Value
$5.71
PnL
+$0.18
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.