Spread: Cowboys (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colts (50%) · Colts at 62¢ · $72K held · ended Nov 8

Cowboys39¢Colts61¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colts

Consensus Traders

Colts 50%

Total Value

$71.9K

Combined PnL

$8.8K

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 61.5¢

-12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralColts at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cowboys39%

Colts62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colts5 traders

Total Value$47.3K

Total Shares61,434

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Cowboys5 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares64,110

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Colts — 50%Cowboys — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Coltsavg 70¢	$29.5K	$32.5K	+$3.0K	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
TA takeormakeCTR	Cowboysavg 30.2¢	$18.8K	$23.9K	+$5.2K	52% 5538-5164 (10702)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coltsavg 69¢	$9.6K	$9.7K	+$62.96	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
unknowngambler	Coltsavg 70.6¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$346.22	57% 442-333 (775)
RollAwayTheDew	Coltsavg 70¢	$980.21	$1.1K	+$98.02	54% 591-501 (1092)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cowboysavg 30¢	$439.26	$563.26	+$124	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Coltsavg 50¢	$100	$184.5	+$58.5	56% 195-151 (346)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Cowboysavg 30¢	$120	$154	+$34	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 30.2¢	$25.05	$31.96	+$6.91	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Cowboysavg 28¢	$14	$19.25	+$5.25	53% 13661-12046 (25707)

nigiri99

Colts

Invested

$29,538.6

Value

$32.5K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

takeormakeCTR

Cowboys

Invested

$18,763.31

Value

$23.9K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

52%

5538-5164 (10702)

HomeRunHazard

Colts

Invested

$9,631.23

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$62.96

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

unknowngambler

Colts

Invested

$3,493.36

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$346.22

Record

57%

442-333 (775)

RollAwayTheDew

Colts

Invested

$980.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$98.02

Record

54%

591-501 (1092)

38791873984189CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$439.26

Value

$563.26

PnL

+$124

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Colts

Invested

$100

Value

$184.5

PnL

+$58.5

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Cowboys

Invested

$120

Value

$154

PnL

+$34

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$25.05

Value

$31.96

PnL

+$6.91

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Cowboys

Invested

$14

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

Research grade

NeutralColts at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colts

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colts. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleColts 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrColts 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Colts 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colts wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.