Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (91%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Browns vs. Steelers: O/U 44.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 9.0¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
2 arb excluded
$3.8K
$22.43
38.5¢ → 9¢
-77% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 9%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 91%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 49.6¢ | $2.3K | $3.1K | +$762.39 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 49.6¢ | $1.3K | $2.0K | +$676.49 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 23¢ | $987.85 | $1.1K | +$85.9 | |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Overavg 29.4¢ | $269.8 | $320.35 | +$50.55 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
 NooseracCTR | Overavg 53¢ | $265 | $230 | -$35 | 52% 5832-5416 (11248) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 66.4¢ | $103.55 | $105.33 | +$1.78 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Overavg 40.3¢ | $55.06 | $63.96 | +$8.9 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.3¢ | $33.06 | $34.03 | +$0.97 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43¢ | $22 | $29.93 | +$7.93 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $35.79 | $40.19 | +$4.4 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100 | Overavg 28¢ | $4.65 | $5.4 | +$0.75 | 53% 11583-10087 (21670) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $2.97 | $2.93 | -$0.04 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,308.36
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$762.39
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.8
Value
$320.35
PnL
+$50.55
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
NooseracCTRInvested
$265
Value
$230
PnL
-$35
Record
52%
5832-5416 (11248)
Invested
$103.55
Value
$105.33
PnL
+$1.78
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$55.06
Value
$63.96
PnL
+$8.9
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.79
Value
$40.19
PnL
+$4.4
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.75
Record
53%
11583-10087 (21670)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.93
PnL
-$0.04
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.